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$.10 On The Current Offseason
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 9th March, 2006 - 3:11 pm
Playoff-bound teams and impersonators alike were able to pad their records at an astounding rate this season against the likes of Detroit, Kansas City, and St. Louis.
Between Lane Kiffin at Tennessee and openings at Clemson, Washington, Syracuse, Mississippi State and Purdue, there are fertile jobs out there.
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As the lyrics to one of my favorite songs goes, "There's nowhere to set my aim, so I'm everywhere". Here's 10 NFL thoughts as I immerse myself into the offseason while biding my time waiting for the draft.
$.01--There's a lot of veteran QBs available either in trades or via free agency. But if I'm a team that needs a new starting QB next season, I don't want any of them. Whether it's potentially devastating injuries (Drew Brees, Daunte Culpepper, Brian Greise), underwhelming acheivement (Patrick Ramsey, Tim Rattay, Aaron Brooks), or aging issues (Chris Weinke, Jon Kitna, Jay Fiedler), I'd much rather take my chances on this year's decent draft class. The only available veteran I'd trust to be my starter in September is Josh McCown, and that's only if I have a great offensive line.
$.02--Calling my shot early, I see the Chicago Bears going down next season. No team but Seattle benefitted more from flawed divisional foes or a favorable schedule. Their head coach and GM disagree on their QB and RB situations. Their primary free agency target, Antwaan Randle El, is a glamorized #3 WR, not the #1 wideout they desperately need, and they'll likely pay premium dollars to lure him. The D will still be strong, but suffocating defenses have a short shelf life in the NFL, and the Bears have had it for 2 years already. In an improved division, the Bears will be lucky to win 8 games.
$.03--If you're surprised by some of the big names cut in salary cap moves, you shouldn't be. Even with the raised cap from the new labor agreement, most of these guys were expendable anyways. From Willie McGinest to Trevor Pryce to Ty Law to Mike Anderson to Kevin Mawae, the salary cap relief resulting from their release was merely gravy for their old teams. Younger, cheaper talent and roster flexibility needed for improvements at other positions played more of a role than salary impact.
$.04--The two most impressive organizations at the Scouting Combine were the Cowboys and Dolphins. From GM to head coach to the most junior scout, those two teams presented an aura of complete focus, vision, and organizational cohesion. They knew what they wanted to get out of their trips to Indy and how to get it. The players I talked with all had nothing but positive things to say about both. Don't be surprised if those two teams have excellent drafts from Round 1 to Round 7.
$.05--I'm a big man, 6'5" and 220, and I avidly play and follow another big man's sport, volleyball. So I'm not easily impressed by the bodies of most athletes. But two guys at the Combine awed me as complete physical freaks of nature. Mario Williams, the DE from NC State, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson, the LT from Virginia, both had a jaw-dropping effect with their physiques. Both are taller than me, weigh 75-90 pounds more than me, yet have sculpted bodies that project both power and litheness. So many guys with such strength appear overly bulky or lack agility because of their denseness, but both of these guys move like they could be running backs.
$.06--Two free agent marriages made in heaven: the Texans and Isaac Bruce, and the Lions and Lavar Arrington. Houston desperately needs a veteran wideout that's comfortable playing both in the slot and outside. Bruce is no longer the great burner, but he still runs great routes and nobody prepares for his opponents harder than Bruce, a quality that incumbent #1 WR Andre Johnson severely lacks. Detroit needs an impact LB, a guy not afraid to hit anything that moves. Put Lavar behind their strong DL, and with some Marinelli discipline to his freelancing he could easily reclaim a spot in the Pro Bowl.
$.07--Everyone on the message boards and radio talk shows concoct all these trade scenarios for the upcoming draft. Yet one of the themes I picked up on from almost every person at the Combine is how little movement in picks is going to happen. Because this appears to be a deeply talented draft, dealing a later pick to move up a few spots is highly unlikely. You might see a minor move or two, but I highly doubt that any of the big splash trades that proliferate on the fan networks ever come to fruition.
$.08--If you could form a team using only players from Miami, Ohio State, and USC and not have to worry about salaries, I believe that team would win at least 13 games every season. The concentration of great talent at so many diverse positions from those three schools is staggering. A team comprised of those three schools would have a Pro Bowler from one of the last 3 seasons at every position except one OT, TE, K, and P.
$.09--Now that labor peace has been acheived and a new CBA signed, my last article is sadly a moot point. But two of the themes I presented remain pertinent to NFL success: spending wisely on free agents, and not hanging on to aging players too long. Better to swing and miss on a guy coming up than on a guy fading down. Locker room harmony and balancing egos matters, as the Patriots and Steelers, and conversely the Colts and Vikings, have proven, and that won't change no matter the salary levels.
$.10--The Raiders made a great, albeit belated, decision to bring back Art Shell as Head Coach. Shell did well his first time around, and he has lived the Raider way for a long time. His discipline and toughness can't help but improve a team in desperate need of both. Hiring Jackie Slater as offensive line coach was a great move too, and not just because he's a graduate of the same high school I attended. Slater and Shell are both Hall Of Fame offensive linemen who combined great technique with nasty attitude. Expect immediate improvement in guys like Robert Gallery and Jake Grove, two talented but inconsistent linemen.
