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By Christopher Reina
Again and again, we hear that the NFL is a quarterback's league and that you cannot win (i.e. make the playoffs, let alone reach and win a Super Bowl) without a good passing game.
Teams with the apparatus of an effective passing game (a good quarterback, a strong offensive line, receivers who are sure-handed and possibly playmakers) clearly have a much greater likelihood of success. But how true is that historically?
I pulled the data season-by-season since the 1970 merger and examined the team passer rating of the playoff teams, Super Bowl champion and Super Bowl runner-up. The average rank amongst playoff teams is 9.25, while the Super Bowl champ has an average rank of 6.31 and the runner-up has an average rank of 6.90.
Since the previous two SB winners had an 18th and 24th ranking respectively, that average has climbed from 5.51 in just two years time, as the Steelers and Giants were somewhat outliers or possibly represent a lasting change in how teams win.
Between 1987 and 1999, there were no Super Bowl champions outside the top-10, five top-ranked teams and had an average rank of 3.07.
- Both Super Bowl finalists were out of the top-10 in passer rating in just three separate seasons; 2003 (Patriots 11th, Panthers 15th), 2000 (Ravens 21st, Giants 12th) and 1986. Each of these teams featured defenses that were extremely well equipped to offset deficiencies on offense.
- The most dominant year of the passing game may have been 1998 when the top nine teams in passer rating made the playoffs.
- In 17 of the 38 Super Bowls since the merger, the team with the highest passer rating during the regular season was represented, with victories in 10 of those 38.
- The 2007 Giants were the lowest ranked Super Bowl champ (24th in regular season passer rating) and the 2006 Bears are the only other Super Bowl finalist to be ranked so poorly.
- Yet only three times ('91, '72, '71) have the top two teams in passer rating faced off in the Super Bowl.
- I think the below evidence shows that a top tier passing game is not an unequivocal requisite for reaching the Super Bowl, but it is incredibly important unless you're pretty damn dominant defensively. Even many of the most highly regarded SB winning defenses, such as the '85 Bears, '75 Steelers, '90 Giants and '01 Patriots had very good passing games.
Year: Average rank of passer teams (SB Champ and rank, SB Runner-up and rank)
