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Week 8 Fantasy Football Inside Ticket
Authored by Carl Setterlund - 30th October, 2005 - 12:12 am
Playoff-bound teams and impersonators alike were able to pad their records at an astounding rate this season against the likes of Detroit, Kansas City, and St. Louis.
Between Lane Kiffin at Tennessee and openings at Clemson, Washington, Syracuse, Mississippi State and Purdue, there are fertile jobs out there.
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Week 8. Both the football season and the fantasy football season continue to unfold and there is again no shortage of stories. I can’t remember a season so filled with big name injuries and soon to be big name sleepers. What I find most interesting is that I think we have identified two rookies who are on the fast track to becoming elite fantasy contributors. No, I’m not talking about Cadillac Williams who has quickly faded and opened the door for Michael Pittman to share snaps. My two rookies are Heath Miller and Ronnie Brown, both of whom have put up very impressive numbers as of late. It’s going to be a tight race this year for the title of top offensive rookie. Let’s take a look at both guys.
Up to this point the big scare was that Ricky Williams would take snaps away from Brown. Williams has taken a couple snaps in place of the Auburn prodigy, but his half a yard per carry is quickly putting him back on the bench. Let’s look at what Ronnie has been doing the past four games. Against Carolina in week 3, he rushed for 132 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. He followed up in Buffalo with 97 yards on 17 carries. The next week he faced Tampa Bay’s top ranked defense and I think it’s understandable that he struggled gaining only 22 yards on 9 carries, but not all was lost as Brown also went for a touchdown and a season high 44 yards receiving. Then last week he ran all over Kansas City for 95 yards and a touchdown. I think we’re seeing a trend here. I like that Coach Saban isn’t overusing Brown – I mean 10 rushing attempts a game would be nice – but I think we’ll find that he won’t wear down to much down the stretch. The Dolphins have already faced their toughest defenses and soft match ups like Buffalo, Cleveland, New England, New Orleans and the New York Jets are still ahead. Brown should finish the year pretty strong and end up with 1,200 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball is Heath Miller who has quickly become one of Roethlisberger’s favorite red zone targets. Over the past three games Miller has asserted himself offensively pulling in 14 catches, 166 yards and 3 touchdowns. This included an especially impressive 6 catch, 72-yard (and a touchdown!) game with Tommy Maddox at quarterback against a stingy Jacksonville pass defense. Ahead lie games against such defensive powerhouses as Green Bay, Cleveland and Minnesota, signaling good things to come for the Pittsburgh tight end. We’ll see what he does this weekend against a banged up Ravens secondary. I have Miller on my radar at tight end and I think at the end of the season he should be able to total something like 48 catches, close to 600 yards and 8 or 9 touchdowns. If you can acquire either of these hot rookies, I’d advise you to pull the trigger.
QB Rankings – Top 10
1. Peyton Manning last week: 1
2. Donovan McNabb last week: 2
3. Carson Palmer last week: 3
4. Tom Brady last week: 4
5. Brett Favre last week: 5
6. Daunte Culpepper last week: 7
7. Mark Brunell last week: 9
8. Eli Manning last week: 10
9.Matt Hasselbeck last week: 6
10. Drew Bledsoe last week: 8
On the bubble: Trent Green, Mike Vick, Jake Plummer
Injured: Marc Bulger
What can I say about Peyton Manning? Another good week completely puts to rest the questions brought up during his struggles earlier this year, and a couple good match ups are coming after his bye this week. McNabb hasn’t been so hot lately, but the Eggles are throwing it 50 times a game (!) and I can’t argue with that. Palmer choked last week on the big stage, but we all might have been expecting too much from him so soon in his career. Brady and Favre are steady as usual and look who came up big last week! Daunte Culpepper goes for 280 yards and two touchdowns, and he gets Nate Burleson back, which constitutes a good week. Both Mark Brunell and Eli Manning were stellar last week whereas Hasselbeck and Bledsoe struggles, bringing about a little shuffle at the tail end of the rankings.
Quarterback notes:
- Even after a bye, Tom Brady still leads the league in passing yards. However, with the match ups this weekend I see that changing. Brady faces a good Buffalo secondary and has receiver Troy Brown out whereas Palmer’s corps are at full strength going into a shootout in Green Bay. Palmer should make up the 21 yard gap.
- In his usual way, Aaron Brooks isn’t making any sense. In Joe Horn’s absence the past two games, Brooks has gone for close to 500 yards and 4 touchdowns. This week it looks like Horn is finally returning so does that mean…? I’m not even going to try to break this one down.
- The Packers last week lost Robert Ferguson with a sprained knee and ankle and Ahman Green with a torn quad tendon. What does this mean? Brett Favre is set for another big week. Favre is on a hot streak of late and is going into a game this Sunday against Cincinnati that has barn burner written all over it. Red zone target Bubba Franks is back into the fold and with no running game to speak of the Packers may pass up to 50 times.
- Daunte Culpepper has 12 interceptions so far. What does that mean? It means he is the only QB with over ten picks. It also means he is the only starting quarterback in the league with twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. Not to worry though, Daunte got receiver Nate Burleson back last week and is coming off a big week with some nice match ups coming ahead. Now would be a good time to try to trade for the big guy.
- Last week I told you that Jake Plummer wouldn’t pass for 200 yards. So, what did he pass for you ask? 194 yards. Will he go for 200 yards this week? I’ll give him 210, but I do think he finally throws and interception.
- Whoever picked up Mark Brunell thinking he’d be an ok backup quarterback has to be winning their league right now.
RB Rankings – Top 10
1. LaDainian Tomlinson last week: 1
2. Shaun Alexander last week: 2
3. Edgerrin James last week: 3
4. Tiki Barber last week: 4
4a. Willis McGahee last week: 5
4b. Priest Holmes last week: 6
4c. Brian Westbrook last week: 7
4d. Warrick Dunn last week: 8
4e. Thomas Jones last week: 9
4f. Domanick Davis last week: 10
4g. Lamont Jordan last week: not ranked
4h. Steven Jackson last week: not ranked
On the bubble: Rudi Johnson, Corey Dillon
Injured: Julius Jones
I’m sticking with my top three and I am not expecting them to change the rest of the season. Tomlinson was a massive bust last week but you have to allow him to lay an egg every 5 years or so. Alexander was also underwhelming, but his prior games are too impressive to move him anywhere. Edge is still a yardage machine but needs to consistently produce touchdowns before he’s considered with the top two. I feel like I’m saying that every week. I looked at the rest of the running backs this week and tried to move them here and there and make sense of the whole group. However, after meditating on the issue for a while I’ve come to the conclusion that there are 9 running backs with the exact same value right now! I’m making a statement. Until one of these guys separates themselves from the others, they all get the same ranking.
Running Back notes:
- My quest for the rest of the year is to try to decipher the Denver running game. The last five weeks have me searching to find a pattern. In weeks 3 and 4 Mike Anderson put up 98 rushing yards and a touchdown followed by 115 rushing yards the next game. This coincided with two sub par games from Tatum Bell. However, in weeks 5 and 6 Tatum Bell came up large posting 127 yards and two touchdowns followed by 114 yards and a touchdown. This leads me to believe they produce in two game cycles. Last week Mike Anderson went for 120 yards and a touchdown meaning he will do good again this week, followed by two good weeks from Tatum Bell. In regards to touchdowns, Anderson has only scored against teams with three words in their name (New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants). The Broncos only face three more teams with three word names, so watch for a touchdown drought ahead for Mike Anderson. No, none of that was serious.
- Last week Steven Jackson finally got his 20 carries. The result was a 97-yard, two touchdown performance. Someone notify the Rams of this please, if they haven’t yet noticed the trend.
- Maybe Warrick Dunn won’t get you more than 6 or 7 touchdowns, but the man is on pace to push for 1,700 rushing yards this year.
- Admit it, you’re wondering where the hell Chris Perry came from. Last year’s first round pick out of Michigan, Perry has developed in the Bengals receiving threat out of the backfield. He should continue getting enough touches to warrant a spot on whichever fantasy team is starting Ricky Williams.
- I quote from last week, “The Clinton Portis touchdown watch is officially on. That’s right, the former Broncos stud running back who had 31 touchdowns in his two years in Denver is on pace for 0 touchdowns! Nada! Zilch! If he doesn’t score this week against San Francisco I’m going to start taking bets.”
What happened last weekend? Portis broke out for 101 yards and three touchdowns. The Washington feature back has finally gotten over the hump but keep in mind that last week’s opponent, San Francisco, has allowed a league-high 34 points a game. With touchdown vultures Chris Cooley and Mike Sellers in the fold, I don’t think his game was a sign of things to come. I won’t deny though, his season total of 3 touchdowns is looking significantly better than the previous 0.
- Fellas, it’s time to put Jamal Lewis to rest. His season average of 2.9 yards a carry have his owners severely frustrated. The Ravens just lost stud blocker Alan Ricard for the rest of the season as well. Combine this with Lewis’ admission that he is running softly to keep from getting hurt and I’d seriously consider dropping him in shallower leagues.
WR Rankings – Top 10
1. Terrell Owens last week: 1
2. Chad Johnson last week: 2
3. Steve Smith last week: 3
4. Randy Moss last week: 5
5. Marvin Harrison last week: 6
6. Santana Moss last week: 8
7. Larry Fitzgerald last week: 9
8. Anquan Boldin last week: 7
9. Plaxico Burress last week: not ranked
10. Terry Glenn last week: 10
On the bubble: Jimmy Smith, Donald Driver, Joey Galloway
Injured: Torry Holt, Joe Horn
Owens holds on to the top spot with a decent 7-catch, 53-yard, one touchdown performance against San Diego. I like that he’s demanding to be thrown to more. Chad had another good week and Steve Smith had a bye. A banged up Randy Moss still posted good numbers against a tough defense. Harrison goes up a spot as a result of Torry Holt’s injury problems and because of a good game against the Texans. Santana Moss continued to impress with his third straight 110-yard game with a touchdown to boot. The Arizona receivers flip-flopped after Boldin laid an egg and Fitzgerald stayed steady. Back in there is Plax Burress who I had put on the bubble earlier because of injury concerns. However, he had another big game last week.
Wide Receiver notes:
- I’m not seeing much competition in Green Bay for Donald Driver. The cards are all lined up for him to post huge numbers the rest of the way. Because of injuries to Javon Walker and now Robert Ferguson, Driver will be competing for looks against just Bubba Franks and Antonio Chatman. With a bad defense, no running game and Brett Favre at quarterback, I just can’t help but like the scenario Driver finds himself in.
- Every year, Dolphins wide out Chris Chambers flies under the radar pulling in a little over 60 catches and 900 yards. Wouldn’t you guess it, this year he’s on pace for 61 receptions and 939 yards. I’m not saying he’s spectacular, but there’s something to be said about having a consistent second or third receiver like this on your fantasy team.
- Last week I dubbed Kevin Curtis the breakout receiver of the year. Last week he had 69 yards and a touchdown. With injuries to Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, Curtis is in line to be St. Louis’ number one receiver yet again this week.
- Who can stop Chad Johnson? Ike Taylor couldn’t last week, allowing 4 catches for 94 yards. Johnson should have had a touchdown as well, but it was called back. This week, we’ll see what Al Harris is made of when he faces Johnson.
- After underwhelming play earlier in the year, Reggie Wayne has been getting a lot of looks from Peyton Manning the last three games totaling 22 catches for 223 yards. That’s a lot of 2s.
- Santana Moss is averaging 6 catches and 125 yards a game this year. He’s on pace for 100 receptions, 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns. I know he can’t possibly keep it up, but wow.
TE Rankings – Top 5
1. Antonio Gates last week: 1
2. Tony Gonzalez last week: 2
3. Jeremy Shockey last week: 3
4. Alge Crumpler last week: 5
5. Todd Heap last week: not ranked
Gates was had an outstanding game last week and Gonzalez had a strong showing as well. Shockey was actually disappointing but Alge Crumpler didn’t do enough to move by him. With another strong game Todd Heap has moved into the top five and Jason Witten is out. Because of the season ending injury to Flozell Adams in Dallas, news is that Witten’s primary role is going to become blocking, meaning a dip in production.
Others to watch: Old friend Jermaine Wiggins had another 6 receptions for 56 yards last week, trade for him now! With an injury to Brandon Jones, Erron Kinney has become Steve McNair’s number one target. He leads the Titans with 34 receptions. With all then injuries in Green Bay, I look for Bubba Franks to be a big factor the rest of the way. I’ll keep you updated on his production.
Notable Kicker of the week: I thought Josh Brown had a great week, going two for two from beyond 50 yards, including a game winner where he gave us all a lesson in helmet tossing. But no, Josh Brown does not earn notable kicker of the week honors! We had another kicker go two for two from beyond 50 yards including a 30-yarder earlier and three extra points. After a brush with the law earlier in the year, the pride of Scotland has been stellar of late and deserves a look if nobody has already scooped him up.
Notable Defense of the week: This week’s defense isn’t getting recognition because of its stellar play, rather it’s the contrary. After losing Rodney Harrison for the year earlier in the season, New England looks to regain a little of the magic of old this weekend with the activation of Tedy Bruschi. After a bye to nurse injuries, the Patriots get back Richard Seymour and face a revived Buffalo Bills offense. It will be a test for the run defense to see if they can stop the NFL’s self proclaimed best rusher Willis McGahee and we will see how the secondary deals with a marginal quarterback like Kelly Holcombe. This year we’ve witnessed the struggle of old mainstays, New England and Baltimore. It’s hard to know if they can ever regain their old form, which is why this weekend is so important for the Patriots defense.
Buy Low: The Buy Low this week is sleeping giant Corey Dillon. While it’s often smart to stay away from players who are injured, I’d advise going after Dillon. He was given the game off against Denver and has been in hiding ever since. His earlier yardage struggles are also raising eyebrows. I’ve seen the real Corey Dillon and I know he’s still a 1,300-yard, 12-touchdown running back. Remember this, and send out a feeler.
Sell High: This week’s sell high is again a Washington Redskins player. Clinton Portis is coming off a monster week in San Francisco with 101 yards and 3 touchdowns. Don’t be fooled. While he will get the yards, Portis will scarcely ever see the end zone again this year. If you can trade Portis for a guy like Steven Jackson and some spare parts, I’d pull the trigger.
That’s this week’s fantasy football rankings. Use it right RealGMers.
