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Semi-Early Mock Draft, Version 2.0
Authored by Jeff Risdon - 7th November, 2006 - 11:57 pm
Playoff-bound teams and impersonators alike were able to pad their records at an astounding rate this season against the likes of Detroit, Kansas City, and St. Louis.
Between Lane Kiffin at Tennessee and openings at Clemson, Washington, Syracuse, Mississippi State and Purdue, there are fertile jobs out there.
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Once again I tweaked the current standings a bit to fit more with how I project the teams will finish.
1. Arizona Cardinals: Joe Thomas, T, Wisconsin.
The Edge experiment proves it’s not the RB, it’s the offensive line that needs upgrading. Thomas has improved his pass block agility as the season progressed.
2. San Francisco 49ers: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech.
Johnson would give the Niners a pretty strong cadre of offensive weapons with Gore, Bryant, Davis, and Smith, even though they are in dire need of multiple defensive upgrades. Some are worried that Johnson doesn’t consistently dominate the competition.
3. Miami Dolphins: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame.
Ideal trade bait if this projected finish holds up. Quinn still likely grades out higher than Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, or Alex Smith, and that represents a needed upgrade for the floundering Dolphins, who cannot afford to count on Daunte Culpepper ever being his old self again.
4. Detroit Lions: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville.
Has proven he’s recovered from the thumb and knee injuries. The Lions simply cannot pass on a potential franchise QB with his size, arm, and selfless toughness.
5. Houston Texans: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan.
Physical cover man with excellent closing speed and good body fundamentals in coverage. Would immediately upgrade the Texans’ biggest weakness and perhaps light a fire under the regressing Dunta Robinson.
6. Oakland Raiders: Jake Long, T, Michigan.
He’d be a great fit for the OL-challenged Raiders, but I’ve talked with two different UM insiders that tell me it’s no lower than 80/20 he returns to school next year so he could go as high as #1 in 2008. If he’s in the draft, Al Davis is nuts not to take him, which he might be.
7. Tennessee Titans: Ted Ginn Jr., WR/KR, Ohio State.
Ginn improves every week in the subtleties of playing WR, and he’s still the fastest football player in the country. An offense with Ginn and Vince Young presents real problems for defensive coordinators with their speed and versatility.
8. Buffalo Bills: Alan Branch, DL, Michigan.
The Bills pulled two 1st round surprises last season, and though Branch is steadily climbing draft charts with his ability to shed blockers and make plays in the backfield, this is probably higher than you’ll see Branch in other mocks, which makes him fit with the Bills’ draft philosophy.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson.
Nonstop motor on a speed rusher who diagnoses screens and cutbacks quite well. Tampa would plug him into the Simeon Rice role on the edge of their 4-3 and hope for the best, which would be “the next Simeon Rice”.
Versatile big man (6’3”, 305) with enough bulk to occupy the middle and enough speed to play DE in Cleveland’s 3-4 defense. Keeps with the Browns’ ongoing philosophy of drawing from the local talent pool.
11. Washington Redskins: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC.
Note: Denver has the potential option of swapping picks with WAS. This projection assumes they will not and Washington is picking. Jarrett gives them a tall WR who can both catch and block, which the Skins have learned with their current “Smurfs II” WR corps is a necessary skill.
Note his positions, DE and OLB. That’s code for “has to play in a 3-4 or hybrid defense”. The Steelers fit that bill, and Moses has shown the ability to cover in a zone blitz, a staple of the Pittsburgh defense.
13. Green Bay Packers: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma.
This is lower than you’ll see Peterson projected in most mocks. Scouts and personnel people I’ve talked with all have genuine concern with his durability and upright running style and a reluctance to pay huge $$ for taking the risk on him high in the 1st round. Green Bay can pair him with a declining Ahman Green and hope Peterson is motivated by falling in the draft for arbitrary reasons.
14. New York Jets: Frank Okam, DT, Miami.
A 6’5”, 320 pound bull with a knack for moving the point of attack into the backfield, precisely what the Jets soft run defense needs. Only a junior and like the aforementioned Jake Long, Okam is far from a lock to enter this draft.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida.
The Eagles are a team that steadfastly refuses to draft for immediate need, though Thomas would probably be an upgrade right away. Most scouts feel his off-field issues are a thing of the past and a positive learning experience for Thomas, a potentially dominant gap defender.
16. St. Louis Rams: Daymeion Hughes, CB, California.
Classic technique cover corner who has shown good run support ability. The Rams are in need of both of those skills, despite Hughes’ lack of blazing speed or ideal size.
Moving up draft boards with his excellent physical play and infectious intensity. The Jags sorely need depth and range at LB, and Davis fits both bills.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State.
Giant tackle with good agility in pass blocking and the ability to get to the second level in run blocking. Not the biggest need for the Vikings, but he’s too good for them to pass here. They could very well go WR here, either Samardzija or Rice.
19. Carolina Panthers: Laron Landry, S, LSU.
Good size (6’2”, 225) and strong instincts in pass coverage. Not always the surest tackler, more of a hitter, but that might be better for a Panthers secondary chock full of finesse guys.
20. Dallas Cowboys: Justin Blalock, OL, Texas.
Probably a better fit in the NFL as a G, though he’s played well at tackle. Can be a dominating run blocker who excels at locking up defenders and sealing holes. If the Tony Romo experiment fails, the Cowboys will look real hard at Drew Stanton or Troy Smith here.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina.
Rice is a junior, but most scouts feel he’s coming out. Great size and acceleration, though he doesn’t always catch with his hands or fight for the ball. The Chiefs can’t rely on Eddie Kennison and the anonymous bunch forever at WR.
22. New Orleans Saints: LaMarr Woodley, LB/DE, Michigan.
Very strong, versatile defender who doesn’t need help to make tackles or to cover TEs or most RBs. Continues the makeover of the Saints defense into a tougher, bigger unit.
23. New England Patriots via Seahawks: Jeff Samardzija, WR, Notre Dame. Brings much-needed size and a knack for big plays to the Patriot offense, in which he’s played much the same scheme in college under former Pats OC Charlie Weis. Has the requisite football IQ and understated cockiness to fit right in with New England.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Aaron Rouse, S, Virginia Tech.
Physical freak who will drop jaws at the Combine and Senior Bowl workouts. Former LB has all the plusses and minuses of Cowboys S Roy Williams, though not as high of a talent ceiling. This is the only unchanged pick from the last mock I did.
25. Denver Broncos: Ray McDonald, DE, Florida.
Because there just aren’t any more ex-Browns DL out there, and the Broncos still need major help at DE. McDonald has had injury issues but has been a disruptive pass rusher and reliable run defender the past few weeks for the Gators.
26. New York Giants: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California.
Another guy most will think is too low here, but most teams are either already set at RB or have drafted one highly the past couple of years. Lynch is a physical runner with enough quickness to break outside, but needs lots of work in the passing game.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Sam Baker, T, USC.
Strong pass blocker who plays very well against speed rushers for a man of his height. The Ravens will strongly consider going CB or even RB here as well.
28. Atlanta Falcons: Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss.
Prolific tackler whose lack of great range and speed is a better fit at ILB in a 3-4 scheme like Atlanta, which has had major injury issues at LB for years.
29. San Diego Chargers: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State. He’s got the size (6’1”) and elite speed (4.33 in the 40) teams love at CB, and he’s strong in run support. Fresno State players have earned a reputation as well-coached and NFL-ready right away, and McCauley is no exception.
30. New England Patriots: H.B. Blades, LB, Pittsburgh.
The Pats have a LB corps all prepared to retire within 1-2 years. Blades is an intelligent hitter with decent range and uncoachably natural instincts, though he lacks great height and speed. In short, he’s the next Tedy Bruschi.
31. Chicago Bears: Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona.
Good athlete with a strong nose for the ball. A bit superfluous for the Bears to add to an already stacked defense, but it’s what they do when they’re not taking el busto RBs 20 spots too high.
32. Indianapolis Colts: Tank Tyler, DT, NC State.
Tyler is the large (6’2”+, 320) angry bull the Colts desperately lack in the middle of their run defense. Playing even better without 2006 1st rounders Williams and McCargo on the line with him, a very good sign.
Notes on popular names I’ve omitted:
Drew Stanton: Much like his MSU team, Stanton has been wildly inconsistent and makes too many poor decisions under pressure in spite of also showing outstanding skills and athleticism. A strong postseason will propel him into the mid-1st round, but he’s just not there right now.
Kenny Irons: Has the talent to go in the teens, but I get the impression from many scouts there is not a great demand for 1st round RBs and the corresponding hefty contracts.
Brandon Meriweather: The combative Miami safety is black flagged from at least two draft boards I’m aware of after his despicable involvement in the brawl vs. FIU.
Troy Smith: If he were 2 inches taller he’d be a 1st round lock, but he’s neither of those.
Paul Posluszny: Really needs to have a strong postseason to prove he’s got more potential than just being a good college LB. I’m not convinced he does, and I’m not alone.
Garrett Wolfe: The size concerns about the NIU RB are very legit-he’s not even close to the listed 175 pounds. He was completely stuffed in the only game he’s played against a 3-4 too. I see him as a 4th-5th rounder.
Adam Carriker: The Nebraska DE just hasn’t shown the ability to consistently rush the passer or shed blockers expected of him. Probably a mid-2nd rounder right now.
