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Seeing Brady In Indy, Manning In New England
Authored by Christopher Reina - 11th December, 2007 - 6:36 pm
Breaking down Cleveland's busy weekend, LaDainian Tomlinson to the Jets, as well as whether David Carr could have a Jim Plunkett-like second act of his career.
There’s a difference between a favorite and a lock. When up against a team with playoff-level talent, it’s rare that the team with the better record ever appears in the second category.
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Since February 2002 when the Patriots beat the Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI, Tom Brady has been recognized as an above-average quarterback who won championships, while Peyton Manning has been known as the NFL's best quarterback who endlessly lost in the playoffs.
This of course changed in February 2007 when the Colts beat the Bears to win Super Bowl XLI.
But this topic quickly shifted focus again at the start of the 2007 season when Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth joined the Patriots to give Brady his first truly dangerous collection of weapons.
Brady has an NFL-best 123.5 QB rating, easily the finest of his career and would beat Manning's record of 121.1 set in 2004.
His performance has been so staggering, it begs the question of whether Brady has been underrated as a pure quarterback because of how he has been often overshadowed by a team predicated on winning via a team-oriented style.
The names of his leading receivers in previous seasons does not make one think of very many February trips to Honolulu.
Brady's 123.9 rating against the blitz this season (14 TDs/1 INT) is also astonishing and speaks to the upgrade in quality of his receivers versus single coverage. Branch, Givens, and Brown and David Patten are all very serviceable receivers in their own right and being three or four deep at this position has always served Brady well, but the singular threat of Moss has opened up the offense downfield in ways the team has never seen before.
Here are his previous four season QB ratings versus the blitz:
2006: 89.2
2005: 89.8
2004: 79.4
2003: 75.0
So with Brady on a record-breaking pace this season, what would his numbers have looked like if he had been playing with receivers of Moss’ caliber? Perhaps with receivers of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne’s caliber?
So in the spirit of ‘Face/Off’ starring Nicholas Cage and John Travolta
Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd in 'Trading Places'
and ‘Vice Versa’ starring Judge Reinhold and Fred Savage
We asked WhatIfSports to turn their finely tuned simulators to this scenario: what would Tom Brady’s career look like in Indianapolis, and what would Peyton Manning’s career look like in New England?
Brady’s Record on Colts - Simulated record/actual record/win difference/simulated playoffs
2001: 8-8, 6-10, +2 (miss playoffs)
2002: 10-6, 10-6, even (Beat Steelers, lose to Patriots)
2003: 10-6, 12-4, minus 2 (Beat Ravens, lose to Patriots)
2004: 11-5, 12-4, minus 1 (Beat Jets, lose to Steelers)
2005: 11-5, 14-2, minus 3 (Lose to Bengals)
2006: 10-6, 12-4, minus 2 (Beat Cheifs, beat Ravens, lse to Patriots)
Manning’s Record on Patriots - Simulated record/actual record/win difference/simulated playoffs
2001: 10-6, 11-5, minus 1 (Beat Dolphins, lose to Steelers)
2002: 11-5, 9-7, plus 2 (Beat Colts, lose to Raiders)
2003: 12-4, 14-2, minus 2 (Beat Colts, beat Chiefs, win Super Bowl)
2004: 15-1, 14-2, plus 1 (Beat Charters, beat Steelers, win Super Bowl)
2005: 11-5, 10-6, plus 1 (Lose to Steelers)
2006: 12-4, 12-4, even (Beat Jets, beat Chargers, beat Colts, win Super Bowl)
Brady’s actual 2001-2006 stats (Patriots) 1,895-3,061 for 21,558 yards
Completion Percentage: 61.9
Touchdowns: 147
Interceptions: 78
Yards per attempt: 7.0
QB rating: 88.4
Mannings’s actual 2001-2006 stats (Colts) 2,117-3,211 for 25,299 yards
Completion Percentage: 65.9
Touchdowns: 190
Interceptions: 81
Yards per attempt: 7.9
QB rating: 99.1
Mannings’s actual 2001-2006 stats (Patriots) 2,022-3,099 for 23,558 yards
Completion Percentage: 65.2
Touchdowns: 170
Interceptions: 80
Yards per attempt: 7.0
QB rating: 95.7
The first thing that jumps out is the Patriots win three Super Bowls with Manning, and the Colts win zero with Brady. New England's strength on defense and special teams have always been a crucial element of their success and the principle reason of separation in those playoff games between the Colts and Patriots.
Furthermore, without their improbable second half comeback in last season's AFC Championship, Manning and the Colts would now be down 0-4 to Brady and the Patriots in the Super Bowl tally.
The gap in pure statistical output narrows dramatically when the two quarterbacks swap teams, but Manning is the slightly better quarterback with a 95.7 rating to Brady's 94.0.
This difference seems fair because we have yet to see Brady sustain the kind of output he is putting up this season, which is all the more magnified because of Manning's ordinary (by his standards) 2007 season.
Many thanks to the team at WhatIfSports for bringing this idea to life.
