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Week 14 Fantasy Outlook
Authored by Martin Barna - 8th December, 2005 - 2:18 pm
Breaking down Cleveland's busy weekend, LaDainian Tomlinson to the Jets, as well as whether David Carr could have a Jim Plunkett-like second act of his career.
Peyton Manning's playoff resume has been greatly debated. Here is how his numbers compare to the regular season, along with Tom Brady and more than two dozen other all-time greats.
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With the NFL playoffs looming large on the horizon, the performance of individual players may start to depend less and less on the defenses they are facing and more and more on how badly their team needs the game in order to make the postseason. In must-win games, elite players are able to elevate their performance and consequently, starting players with their backs up to the wall can often net major fantasy success.
That being said, the fantasy value of players on teams in the race for Reggie Bush (Texans, Jets, Packers, and 49ers) will drop off in the most important weeks of the fantasy season. Player on teams in the thick of the playoff hunt, on the other hand, are usually much stronger starts – even if they’ve underperformed in the early portion of the season.
With that point in mind, here are my week 14 picks:
STUDS
Brad Johnson (vs. STL) – Johnson has thrown for 5 TD’s and 463 yards in his last two outings, while the Rams secondary has been shredded time and time again. Without any real pressure from the St. Louis front seven, look for Johnson to come out strong for the surging Vikings and throw for 250 yards and two scores without breaking a sweat.
David Carr (@ TEN) – Carr lit up the Titans for 266 yards the last time these two teams met, and should be able to equal that mark on Sunday against a listless Tennessee secondary that’s given up 25 passing touchdowns in 12 games. Look for 240 yards and a pair of scores.
Lamont Jordan (@ NYJ) – Jordan was shut down by the Chargers on Sunday night, but should bounce back nicely against a Jets defense that’s giving up nearly 140 yards a game. Count on Norv Turner to emphasize the ground game, so Jordan could score twice and amass upwards of 130 yards.
Warrick Dunn (vs. NO) – The Saints play the pass well so the Falcons will have to win on the legs of Dunn and Duckett. Though Dunn may give up some goal line carries, look for him to put up solid yardage numbers against the 28th run defense – especially since a loss here could prove fatal to Atlanta’s postseason aspirations.
Kevin Jones (@ GB) – Like the Saints, the Packers boast one of the league’s best pass defenses but are abysmal against the run. As such, the Lions will likely give Jones 25-plus carries in the frozen tundra on Sunday. I see one rushing touchdown and 140 total yards.
Chad Johnson (vs. CLE) – He was double- and triple-teamed all day against the Steelers, but against the Browns, even that won’t stop 85 from ripping Cleveland for 120 yards and at least one touchdown. Dance on, Chad.
Lee Evans (vs. NE) – Coming off a three-touchdown, 117-yard performance on Sunday, Evans should continue his late-season surge against the 31st-ranked New England secondary. With Eric Moulds suspended for “undisclosed reasons”, Evans will break the century mark again and should reach the end zone at least once.
Plaxico Burress (@ PHI) – In this crucial divisional match-up, Burress should be able to translate his size advantage over the Philadelphia defensive backs into a big afternoon for the the G-Men. The Eagles have given up 19 passing touchdowns on the year and Burress should help up that number by at least one on Sunday. Throw in 90 receiving yards for good measure.
Todd Heap (@ DEN) – As leery as I am about starting a Raven on the road, Heap has been coming on strong of late with a pair of touchdown catches and 167 yards in his last three games. Throw in the fact that Denver cedes over 240 passing yards per game and we could be seeing a score and 90 yards from Baltimore’s only consistent offensive weapon.
Ben Troupe (vs. HOU) – Fellow Titan tight end Erron Kinney is out for the year, so look for Troupe to step in and fill the void. Against the woeful Houston secondary, that void could mean big numbers for Troupe, who started the season out strong but has cooled down since. Expect 70 yards and score.
Seattle Defense (vs. SF) – Unless your power went out on Monday night, this pick is pretty obvious. If the Seahawks can shutout the Eagles in Philadelphia, they should have no problem against the Niners at home. Anything more than 10 points for San Francisco would be a complete shock.
Denver Defense (vs. BAL) – Aside from the consistency of Jake Plummer, the Broncos defense has been the main reason for the team’s divisional dominance. The Ravens’ offense has struggled against strong offenses so expect big things from the Broncos on Sunday.
DUDS
Trent Green (@ DAL) – The Cowboys defend the pass fairly well and have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the year. With Larry Johnson running on all cylinders, the Chiefs won’t need more than one touchdown and 150 yards out of Green. Look elsewhere this week.
Jake Delhomme (vs. TB) – Delhomme’s production has leveled off after an incredible first nine games, and with Tampa Bay coming to town, it might be a good week to sit the Carolina signal caller. The Bucs have held opponents under an average of 180 passing yards per game and have only given up eight passing touchdowns on the year. One six-point toss to Steve Smith and 160 yards sounds about right.
Ronnie Brown (@ SD) – Carry-splitting against the league’s best run defense is just bad news all around. Unless you’d be satisfied with 10 carries for 45 yards, sit Brown this week. Ricky Williams too.
Thomas Jones (@ PIT) – Jones hasn’t scored a touchdown or broken the century mark in a single game since week nine. On the road against the league’s fourth-best run defense, Jones won’t crack 60 yards and certainly won’t reach the painted grass.
Julius Jones (vs. KC) – Speaking of droughts, Julius Jones hasn’t seen an end zone since September 25, and hasn’t broken 100 yards in a single game all year long. Kansas City has the league’s fifth-ranked run defense, so don’t expect Jones to break out of slump anytime soon. Pencil him in for 15 carries for 55 yards, but no trips past the pylons.
Hines Ward (vs. CHI) – Ward has been one of the few bright spots on a struggling Steelers squad, but against the Bears, its not going to be a good day for anyone in the Iron City. Chicago’s opponents are averaging just under 170 aerial yards per game and have managed only seven passing touchdowns through 12 games. Ward doesn’t score and doesn’t break 70 yards.
Roy Williams (@ GB) – Kevin Jones is the only Lion to even think about starting at this point. If you don’t agree with that, the fact that the Packer’s secondary has held opponent’s to a league-best 167.6 passing yards per game (you heard right) should help out my case this week. If Williams breaks 80 yards or finds himself on the scoring end of a Garcia touchdown strike, I’m calling my bookie and getting the odds on hell freezing over.
Anquan Boldin (vs. WAS) – Though their record doesn’t show it, the Washington secondary has done a great job of shutting down opponents’ best receivers in the last month (see Moss, Gates and Holt). Boldin appears to be the go-to guy at this point, so it seems to me that Larry Fitzgerald would be the better play.
Dallas Clark (@ JAX) – Clark has managed 181 receiving yards and one touchdown in his last three outings, but against a strong Jaguars defense, you have to think that that production will fall off a bit – especially since Jacksonville’s opponents have averaged only 175 passing yards per game. Unlike some of these other guys, Clark isn’t a terrible play, but expecting more than 50 yards or a score would be a big mistake.
Heath Miller (vs. CHI) – The rookie tight end has cooled off considerably since Big Ben went down in week five, and hasn’t scored a touchdown or broken 50 yards in a game since October. In case you missed it before, the Bears have allowed only seven passing touchdowns in 12 games. Do yourself a favor and bench the kid.
Philadelphia Defense (vs. NYG) – After getting waxed by the Seahawks at home, the Eagles will now have to suffer the humiliation of traveling to the Meadowlands to get waxed by the Giants. With Eli, Tiki, Jeremy, and Plaxico tearing up real estate at an alarming rate on Sunday, dodge the bullet and sit the Philly defense.
Jacksonville Defense (vs. IND) – The Jaguars may have the league’s fifth-best total defense, but their up against the league’s first-best scoring offense. That and the fact that they have to play against some guy named Peyton Manning. If you’re in a bind, you can still give them a shot, but to me, it’s a “no duh” decision to sit the Jags here.
Good luck in Week 14!
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