| Jeff Risdon. 5th September, 2006 - 4:10 am
 Last season: 4-12
Coming: DE Kimo von Oelhoffen, QB Patrick Ramsey, CB Andre Dyson, LB Brad Kassell, TE Zack Hilton, RB Kevan Barlow
Going: DE John Abraham, T Jason Fabini, CB Ty Law, C Kevin Mawae, QB Jay Fiedler, RB Curtis Martin (injured)
Rookies of note: C Nick Mangold, T D’Brickashaw Ferguson
What I like: There is pretty strong talent in the defensive front 7. ILB Jonathan Vilma is a sure tackler, and the new 3-4 defense fits DEs von Oelhoffen and Shaun Ellis as pass rushers. The run defense could be formidable if there aren’t transition pains. Both the rookie OL look to be perennial Pro Bowlers, and those trips to Hawaii could start real soon for Mangold. QB Chad Pennington appears recovered from shoulder surgery, and his velocity and accuracy look much better. The RB combo of Barlow and Derrick Blaylock both catch well and have proven effectiveness in shared backfields like the Jets will operate. WR Laveranues Coles caught 73 passes last season with some of the worst QB and OL play in recent memory, so he should thrive with the expected improvement in both those areas. TE Chris Baker is an emerging talent, and I expect PK Mike Nugent to fare much better this season with the spotlight off; he’s the best big-time collegiate kicker ever, and you don’t simply forget how to kick. The entire organization has shamelessly stolen pretty much every bit of the highly successful Patriots’ way of doing things, including hiring former Pats offensive coordinator Eric Mangini and switching defenses. There’s not a better blueprint in the business to mimic. They get to play equally lousy Buffalo twice, and also draw Houston, Oakland, Green Bay, Tennessee, and Detroit on the schedule; none of those teams will exceed 6 wins.
What I dislike: Wow, where to begin. Probably the most glaring weakness is at WR, where Coles is the only guy on the roster who belongs in the NFL. The OL was horrible last season, riddled with injuries and inexperienced guys playing out of position. With the two promising but unproven rookies, they now have 3 (G Pete Kendall being the other) NFL linemen on the roster. The 3-4 defense makes absolutely no sense for the personnel they’ve got right now. LB Vilma thrives on flying around in open space, but that means the DL must tie up blockers. That’s the opposite of what a 3-4 accomplishes. NT Dewayne Robertson and LBs Kassell and Victor Hobson are all ideal for a 4-3, but their limitations are exacerbated by the new scheme. Pennington was never a gunslinger at QB to begin with, and any drop-off from his pre-injury velocity means lots of INTs and breakups for opposing DBs. The backup QB situation is a battle of “who sucks least” amongst 3 soft-armed, inexperienced benchies. The secondary downgraded by replacing Ty Law and his 10 INTs and swagger with Andre Dyson, a capable #2 but over his head as a #1 CB. Their nickel back is Derrick Strait, a guy they tried to unload for an injured 3rd string RB. They reached at least two rounds too high for their 2nd-5th round draftees, none of whom will play much, if at all. New Head Coach Eric Mangini is 34, and almost all the positional coaches are new and inexperienced as well.
Best case: The Jets can just simulate the season, not suffer any injuries and let the young players develop and grow into the new systems and culture. Hopefully some of them prove to be keepers, the schemes work, and the team might get a whiff of .500 in 2007. Wins against other rebuilders and bottom feeders build confidence and accelerate the reconstruction a season or two.
Worst case: See 2005, only take out the injuries and come up with the same outcome. Eric Mangini makes Rich Kotite look not so bad to Jets fans. Could be the worst team in football and might need a win against Buffalo in Week 14 to avoid a winless season.
Prediction: I think the Jets might surprise some of the more jaded Jets fans and NY media. This is by no means a good football team, but of all the clear non-playoff teams, the Jets probably have the best chance to pull some surprises. If the defensive front 7 adjusts to the 3-4 and Pennington finds a rhythm with Coles and the playbook, they’re going to win some games, and I think both will happen. The schedule has several winnable games, and I think the Jets will take advantage. They go 6-10 in Year One of the “New York Patriots”, although that worst-case scenario I laid out isn’t out of the question. |
