| Jeff Risdon. 4th August, 2009 - 4:27 pm
 2008 record: 5-11
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +1, Sack Differential: -7, Point Differential: -125
Coming In: T Khalif Barnes, QB Jeff Garcia, C Samson Satele, QB Charlie Frye, T Erik Pears, DE Greg Ellis, FB Lorenzo Neal, CB/KR Justin Miller
Going Out: WR Ronald Curry, FB Justin Griffith, C Jake Grove, S Gibril Wilson, T Kwame Harris, DE Kalimba Edwards
Key Rookies: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, S Mike Mitchell, WR Louis Murphy
Offense
QB: JaMarcus Russell finally made some strides towards living up to his #1 overall draft status. Over the last six games he completed nearly 66% of his passes and looked more confident. The organizational stability and another full offseason of work should help Russell emerge. His accuracy on midrange throws and comfort in the pocket both visibly improved as the season wore on. His arm strength is top notch, and his deep balls get there in a hurry. But Russell struggled when facing multiple rushers, and he has developed a nasty propensity for fumbling when sacked. At 260+ pounds (how much is contentious) Russell is a load to bring down, but his late reaction to the rush takes away his advantage. He still stutters through his reads and often delivers the ball a count late, limiting YAC. An offseason of chemistry and timing building with his wideouts should help.
The Raiders signed veteran Jeff Garcia to back him up, or more likely to provide insurance in case Russell just can’t hack it. I’ve long been critical of Garcia as a parasitic suck-up who kills team chemistry, but he wears the role of team savior off the bench incredibly well. As a short-term fix, Garcia can definitely provide energy and infectious pluck, and he’s a much better winner than he is textbook QB. But his weak arm is a poor fit for the receiving corps and the Al Davis offensive style. Don’t expect much in the way of mentorship on his part, but if Russell responds to the challenge for his job, it’s a worthwhile experiment. Or Garcia could seize upon the demand to win now, take the starting gig by the end of September, and the Raiders win an extra game or two. But at what long-term cost?
Newcomers Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye renew their old MAC battles to be the #3. If it ever came to using either guy, the Raiders are probably better off using McFadden in the full-time Wildcat package he ran in college. The Andrew Walter experiment is mercifully over.
RB: Unquestionably the strength of the team. The 1-2-3 punch of Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush is as diversely talented as any team can trot out. Fargas has been the lead back, though most close observers expect that to change this year. Fargas runs with wild abandon and power, though he has very quick feet for a bigger back. His carefree running style lends him to injury and to missing opportunities for bigger plays, however.
Last year’s 1st rounder, McFadden is expected to make a big leap forward in 2009. Blessed with outstanding burst and agility, McFadden struggled with turf toe issues that limited his ability to cut or plant hard. He is a very good receiver out of the backfield and handled “Wildcat” duties in college, which presents Tom Cable (they have no OC) with more creative options. Few can match his explosiveness or open field running. To get there, he must improve his skill at keeping his feet moving after contact and hitting the hole with decisiveness, both of which are questionable in terms of coachability.
Michael Bush is huge (245 pounds) for a RB but is very light on his feet. He runs downhill all the time and isn’t afraid to attack linebackers. Bush lost his top gear with the leg injury that blunted his draft stock, but he runs in the style of Jamal Lewis and thrives in contrast to the speedy McFadden. He is also adept at catching the ball, quickly getting upfield after his blocking assignment in pass protect mode. With sledgehammer FB Oren O’Neal in front of him, the Raiders can deploy a power run package that can wear down any defense. Grizzled vet Lorenzo Neal was brought in to provide insurance for O’Neal, who underwent knee surgery this spring. Neal is clearly at the end of his long and productive line, but his leadership could be invaluable. Luke Lawton nicely fills the role of H-back in limited opportunity.
WR/TE: Many questions abound regarding who exactly is going to catch the ball. Tight end Zach Miller is the leading receiver that returns, and there is a good chance he repeats that feat again. He plays similarly to Jason Witten, a good blocker who is very quick off the line and always seems to find openings in the defense. Miller’s hands are as good as any TE in the league, and he and Russell have developed a nice chemistry together. And that’s a very good thing, because the WR group is full of major questions.
Owner/GM/Majordomo Al Davis defied the logic and hard work of every currently employed scout and pundit (myself included) in using the 7th overall pick on Maryland wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey, who projects as the #1 WR essentially by default. There were certainly times where DHB looked worthy of that lofty draft status. Blessed with good size (6’1”, 210) and eye-popping quickness and speed for that size, DHB is a legit field-stretching weapon who can make the acrobatic catch and is a very good open-field runner. But he disappeared for long stretches (having a shaky QB didn’t help) and has already struggled with the dropsies that plagued him as a Terrapin. The rookie has already struggled with a balky hamstring to boot. That makes him eerily similar to new teammate Javon Walker, a major free agent bust. No longer able to get behind the defense, Walker has not adjusted his game to his advancing age and numerous injuries that have flattened his wheels. To say that he “fought” through injuries would imply that he tried to do so, which sure doesn’t seem like the case. Even so, he should double his 15 catch output if he can stay on the field.
Speedster Johnnie Lee Higgins showed improvement, catching touchdowns in each of the final three games and looking much more able to handle physical coverage. He still needs some polish to his footwork, but he could usurp Walker as the “Y” receiver. My Raiders spies tell me no player on the team improved more this offseason than young Chaz Schilens, a 6’4”/225 pound hulk who also finished strongly last season. His burst off the line and hand/eye coordination have markedly improved, according to some close to the team. Rookie Louis Murphy is the true wild card. A big speedster who plays with attitude, the former Gator has outshined DHB in preseason workouts and developed strong chemistry with Russell during the QB’s private camp. This could be another case of JJ Stokes/Terrell Owens, where the more prominent draft pick fades to oblivion (or Bolivia if you’re Mike Tyson) and the less-regarded guy emerges as a great weapon. Raiders fans can only hope...
Behind Miller at tight end, the Raiders have a training camp battle between late-round pick Brandon Myers and wide-bodied vet Tony Stewart. Both are nothing more than blockers; Stewart has just 29 receptions in the last 3 years, only 5 of which exceeded 10 yards.
OL: Coach Cable is an OL guy, which seems amiss considering this remains one of the weakest lines in the league. The deck has been shuffled a bit, though just how jumbled remains a question. Free agent Khalif Barnes and young incumbent Mario Henderson will battle for the LT spot. That should concern Raiders fans for two reasons: first, no LT worth his weight ever hits free agency, and second, Henderson was the best LT the Raiders have had in years and could still lose his job to an inconsistent castoff with personal baggage. Henderson has good technique and great height, but lacks instincts and has major issues handling speed around the edge. If Oakland is getting the 2006-07 Khalif Barnes from Jacksonville, he’ll be a major upgrade, but he looked like a completely different player last year. He’s wisely signed to a one year, make-good contract. Neither guy can play the right side, which means Cornell Green’s job is safe. Green’s official moniker is “Journeyman” and he provides little push in run blocking. Oakland signed big Erik Pears from Denver, but he quickly washed out of their similar blocking scheme. At least they have depth that doesn’t represent a big dropoff from the starters at tackle. One sure sign the team is in trouble: if Barnes is the opening week right tackle.
They are in better shape inside. In a savvy move, they traded for center Samson Satele from Miami, essentially giving Jake Grove for him in a mutually beneficial deal. Satele is a better fit for the Raiders read-and-hit blocking, as his short arms and lack of flexibility are mitigated by keeping him moving. In Miami, he was asked to smash forward and lock up large DTs--not his strength, but that’s where Grove excels. Robert Gallery has quietly become a decent LG after busting miserably at tackle. He is an exceptional cut blocker and fares far better wrestling with beef than trying to corral chickens. RG Cooper Carlisle also returns, though that is more of a case of not finding anyone better than it is a positive reflection on Carlisle. There is somewhat capable depth inside as well, with John Wade being a solid #2 center and journeyman Marcus Johnson looking to salvage his career as the #3 guard. Paul McQuistan continues to hang on the roster despite being abused in preseason games by the opponent’s 4th string DL. Chris Morris should push him further down; Coach Cable had very positive remarks about Morris following OTAs.
As a whole, this OL needs to cut back on penalties; they’ve ranked in the bottom 5 of OL penalty rates each of the last 4 years. Getting rid of el busto Kwame Harris will help in that regard, but with new faces in different places, line cohesion could be a work in progress.
Defense
DL: So much potential, so little to show for it. The talent among the front four is certainly there, but this group has consistently underachieved since Warren Sapp’s one good year in Oakland. Tommy Kelly is the primary weapon/culprit. Blessed with the complete package of size, speed, and strength, Kelly parlayed one decent season at DE into a monster contract to play DT. He’s been stealing that money with his lethargic, passionless play. Every once in a while Kelly shows you the goods, knifing into the backfield and being basically unblockable for a series or two. He responded well to Coach Cable last year, so there is some reason for optimism. Gerard Warren has quietly emerged from bustdom in Cleveland and become a competent starter at the other tackle spot. He uses his weight well and is a reliably strong tackler, but fatigues quickly and must be part of a rotation to stay freshly effective. In that regard, Warren and top reserve Terdell Sands should make a real strong duo, but Sands plays too much like Kelly--far too much Popov effort, not enough Finlandia. He plays too upright for an interior lineman.
As Derrick Burgess appears poised for a lengthy holdout, former Cowboy Greg Ellis takes over his role as the right end and primary pass rusher. Expect some dropoff, even though Burgess netted just 3.5 sacks in eight full games and parts of two others. Burgess is feared for his lightning-quick first step and his ability to sustain that burst right to the QB. He often abandons playing the run, however, and teams have figured out they can effectively run right at him. Ellis is making the move back from OLB to DE, and he has two traits that clearly endeared him to Al Davis--he’s still got great wheels, and now he’s playing with a chip on his shoulder after the Cowboys unceremoniously let him walk away. I’m admittedly torn on this battle; I admire Burgess’ ability but the acrimony in his holdout and his apathy towards the run spell trouble. I think Ellis still has something left to offer at 34 and he has the body to play with a hand down, but Dallas tired of his chronic nitpicking and his ineffectiveness against the run. I project a combined 11.5 sacks and 15 other hurries, which is good production for rush ends, but serious issues against the run, an even bigger problem with the undersized LBs behind them.
On the other side, Jay Richardson is a stay-at-home, defend the run type, the only guy on the defense who fits that description. He’s not real physical but Richardson is savvy and reliable. Trevor Scott replaces him on passing downs and could fight for base defense snaps if he continues to build on a strong early offseason. Scott is best described as “sneaky-quick” and uses his hands to stay off blocks very well. He bagged six sacks in limited snaps behind the (mercifully) departed Kalimba Edwards. Greyson Grunheim provides depth with young potential, as does 3rd round pick Matt Shaughnessy. They drafted Stryker Sulak to help in that regard, but cut him before camp even started. Only in Oakland...
LB: Oakland has two-thirds of a very strong LB corps. In Thomas Howard and Kirk Morrison, the Raiders feature two young, fast, impact backers that blend well together. Morrison is one of the more under-recognized gems of the league. He navigates through traffic in the middle with the best of them, and his coverage skills are starting safety caliber. Morrison has also emerged as a team leader and is relentlessly positive, which is an anomaly in this locker room. Critics will point out he misses too many tackles, but in his defense most runners have far more options to exploit than most MLBs have to deal with. Howard is perhaps the fastest LB in the league, but he rarely plays out of control unlike so many other speedy backers (see: Ernie Sims). He needs to improve his wrapping after the hit and peeling off blockers. As a nickel LB in coverage, few are Howard’s peer. But he can struggle locating the ball and does not make plays upfield.
After those two, it gets interesting. That’s polite vernacular for “big trouble in the East Bay”. Ricky Brown is the nominal starter, but he is better served as Morrison’s backup. Brown is a marginal starter, but once he went down with injury the replacements made him look like Jack Ham. Jon Alston is the best of the lot, and he reported to camp with 10 pounds of muscle tacked on. He needs every ounce of it, as he was simply too light and weak at 225 pounds. If it doesn’t stifle his speed or quickness, Alston could blossom in 2009 as he has the instincts and heart. Isaiah Ekejiuba has no problems with size or strength, but he is devoid of instincts and would rather attack a blocker than make a tackle. His primary value is on special teams, where those attributes serve him quite nicely. Rookie Slade Norris is a project undersized collegiate DE making the position switch. I actually like his long-term potential as a pass rusher, but he needs a year on the practice squad. Undrafted rookie Franz Joseph stands a good chance of making the team, and he was a tackling machine in college. He would immediately become the best run defender of the unit despite lacking great measurables.
DB: The Raiders possess the top CB in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha. One of the few legit shutdown corners in the NFL, Asomugha has tremendous footwork and textbook coverage technique. He rarely gets beat deep, and he also provides solid run support. This offseason he has been more vocal and more accessible nationally, raising his profile and in turn emerging as more of a team leader and icon--a very welcome development. There is a heated camp battle for the other starting spot between Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson. Routt is probably the more talented option but must prove he gives max effort at all times, something that dogged him last season. Johnson has better ball skills but is very soft against the run. The pass defense improved when Johnson started outside and Routt slid into the slot, an alignment that could hold again.
Safety is a concern and could be a real problem. The starters figure to be Tyvon Branch and Mike Mitchell, two young players that fit the Al Davis mold--big, fast, hard-hitting, not real fundamentally sound, low football IQ. Hiram Eugene figures in the mix as well, and a strong offseason by the tougher Eugene should net him the free safety gig over Branch, who is more of a cover corner without good footwork. Eugene is the slowest of the group but also the most fundamentally sound. El busto Michael Huff might not even make the team, a stunning fall for the 7th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He plays with zero passion or energy. The Raiders found no takers while shopping Huff, not even for a late-round pick--an amazing indictment for such a physically gifted young player.
Oakland took a great deal of heat for selecting Mitchell in the 2nd round, but I believe the former Ohio Bobcat (outstanding choice of schools!) will become a very good starting safety. Al Davis clearly saw a young Jack Tatum, a fearsome hammer with tremendous closing speed. As someone who has seen every Ohio U. football game since 1990 and a paid draft consultant to an actual NFL team, I can vouch that Mitchell is legit as a hitter and will be an asset against the run. His pass coverage and field awareness are lacking and never really improved during his Athens tenure. I will wager a friendly adult beverage with anyone that Mitchell has a better NFL career (barring injury) than Patriots 2nd round safety Patrick Chung.
Special Teams: Punter Shane Lechler is a major asset and perennially deserving of Pro Bowl merit. There are some longtime Raider insiders who will quietly tell you he’s just as good as Ray Guy ever was for the silver and black. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski has strung together a couple of very nice seasons, and his booming kickoffs are a nice bonus. The addition of former Jet Justin Miller gives the Raiders two very dynamic return men, as Johnnie Lee Higgins was the best punt returner in the league in 2008. The coverage units dramatically improved in 2008, though that tends to fluctuate from season to season. With all the young athletes here, they should remain at least average.
3 Keys to the season:
1. The progress of Jamarcus Russell as both a passer and a leader. If Jeff Garcia is starting by week 5, it is short-term gain, long-term disaster.
2. Can the defense generate a better pass rush and force more turnovers?
3. Will the effort level be consistently strong among the key players (Kelly, Burgess, McFadden, the OL) who have been rightly questioned in that regard? The talent has underachieved; if Coach Cable can reach them, this could be a very pleasant surprise.
Forecast: The Raiders are a tough cloud to forecast. There is a great deal of potential here, but it seldom comes together all at the same time. It’s akin to the storm chasers that fan out across Kansas and Oklahoma every summer looking for super-cell tornadoes. Sometimes all the conditions are perfect for destructive success, but one small mitigating factor keeps the potential from exploding into what is expected by the faithful. Yet sometimes success springs up where it’s least expected, where the confluence of divergent factors comes together beautifully. These Raiders could rain down on the competition with a few key breaks, but recent history indicates it’s extremely unlikely that winds up being anything but hot air. The non-divisional schedule supports that as well. Because of all the uncertainty, I offer two forecasts for the Raiders. If Jamarcus Russell is the 16-game starter, the Raiders finish 6-10. If Jeff Garcia starts more than 6 games, the Raiders finish 8-8 and could sneak into the Wild Card mix if they win at Houston and defeat the Jets and Ravens.
- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
