| Jeff Risdon. 14th August, 2009 - 9:16 am
 2008 record: 2-14, last in AFC West
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +5, Sack Differential: -27, Point Differential: -149
Coming In: QB Matt Cassel, WR Bobby Engram, LB Mike Vrabel, LB Zach Thomas, CB Travis Daniels, LB Monty Beisel, G Mike Goff, TE Tony Curtis, LB Corey Mays, C Eric Ghiaciuc, WR Amani Toomer
Going Out: TE Tony Gonzalez, QB Damon Huard, LB Donnie Edwards, CB Patrick Surtain, LB Pat Thomas
Key Rookies: DE Tyson Jackson, DE Alex Magee, CB Donald Washington, WR/KR Quinten Lawrence, K Ryan Succop
Offense:
QB: New general manager Scott Pioli brought Matt Cassel with him from New England, and then signed him to a lucrative long-term deal that rates Cassel among the game's highest-paid signal callers. That's an incredible leap of faith for a player that made the same amount of college football starts as you or I, and who was heavily propped up by an outstanding supporting cast and coaching staff in his brief NFL experience. While Cassel did impress with his athleticism and moxie, his roughness around the edges was clearly evident. Far too many passes were telegraphed, and Cassel exhibited the telling happy feet and indecision, leading to sacks and missed opportunities. He will certainly grow and progress, but the quarterback whom he reminds me the most is Joey Harrington, though Cassel has a livelier arm. Ask Lions or Dolphins fans how that worked out.
Tyler Thigpen goes back to the bullpen after showing some promise in the shotgun spread offense the Chiefs went to last season. Blessed with great feet and a quick delivery, Thigpen struggled to make more than one read and also tended to telegraph his passes. He showed decent short and intermediate accuracy (though streaky) and the ability to create with his scrambling improvisation. The irony here is that Thigpen gets docked for "only" being able to play from the shotgun, but his quarterback rating (54.8) was almost the same as Cassel's (58.1)* when comparing the two just under center -- aided largely by Cassel's interceptions in those situations. Brodie Croyle goes from opening week starter in 2008 to third string in 2009, with injuries the primary culprit. Recent reports from camp suggest Croyle has seized back the #2 spot on the depth chart based on his accuracy and Thigpen's issues with it. The loser of that battle should interpret the recent signing of Patriots castaway Matt Gutierrez as the end of his Chiefs career.
*Thanks to Sirius NFL Radio for the stat
RB: This is make-or-break time for Larry Johnson. The "feature" back has had a checkered career in Kansas City, and he appears to not fit as well with the new offense of head coach Todd Haley and offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. Johnson is a power back with great strength and the ability to absorb contact and keep moving forward. When the offensive lineman gives him a crease between the tackles, L.J. explodes through the hole with rare power and can be a load to bring down. But then there's the other side of the L.J. coin. That side is a chronic malcontent with a disciplinary rap sheet that rivals anyone, an apathetic pass blocker and spotty receiver who lacks great speed or cutback ability. He has the talent to make this work a la Corey Dillon in New England; whether he wants it is another question, and it's a pretty safe wager that this is his final year with the Chiefs.
The Chiefs do have some other options in Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith. Charles is a third down-type back that will remind Cassel of Kevin Faulk, only much faster. In his one week as the feature back last year, he put up 106 yards and netted first downs on all five third down carries. Charles has nice hands and a good sense in the open field. Smith brings more beef but is not the type of runner who can make something out of nothing. The Louisville product also possesses fine receiving and pass protection skills. He is coming off major knee surgery that prematurely ended his 2008, a patellar injury that could land him on the PUP to start the year. Rookie Javarris Williams is a similar player to Smith and could take advantage of the opportunity, though he must improve in the passing game. Diminutive water bug Dantrell Savage should never be more than a return specialist.
WR/TE: It's going to be strange to flip on a Chiefs game and not see Tony Gonzalez lining up at tight end. It's also strange that a new administration brings in a high-octane, precision passing offense and simultaneously severs ties with arguably the greatest receiving tight end of all time. What makes that even stranger is the fact that they brought in aging, limited veteran Bobby Engram to play wide receiver. If the plan is to build for the future Engram clearly doesn't fit, but if the plan is to get a viable passing attack now, why dump Gonzalez?
At least Dwayne Bowe is still around, a vital part of both the present and the future. Bowe has a great size/speed package and strong hands, and he knows how to present himself as a target. Those strong hands will fail him from time to time, however. Bowe is poised for a breakout season and is a legit #1 wide receiver and potent weapon about to enter his prime. Mark Bradley got cast off from the receiver-desperate Bears and turned into a surprisingly effective player in Kansas City. He found a niche running quick ins-and-outs as the outside, short-side spread wideout. The role suits him well, as he is a speedy guy but struggles to get open deep. Injuries continue to dog his career, as he missed two games and parts of two others. Engram fills the role of safety valve target on third and seven, where he has made a long career. Probably one year too long, as he lost whatever step he had in Seattle last year. The recent signing of Amani Toomer screams of redundancy, and it's hard to imagine both Engram and Toomer making the final roster. If both wind up seeing significant playing time, this offense is going to be brutal.
The opportunity will be there for guys like Devard Darling, Jeff Webb, and Terrance Copper to step forward and establish themselves as viable NFL receivers. Copper has stepped up during the offseason, and he's shown flashes in the past during his Saints days. Darling has nice size and has shown similar promise, but he appears cast as a one-catch-a-week player. Rookie Quinten Lawrence will get a sniff but is on the roster for his special teams potential.
Tight end is now a major question. Second-year man Brad Cottam has the inside track to be the feature end. Very big at 6'7" and with just enough speed, he is a huge target noted for his hands coming out of Tennessee. His gaffes in pass blocking kept him from extensive playing time last year, and this summer he's struggled with his hands and footwork in route running. That has opened the door for veteran Sean Ryan, a lunchpail sort of tight end who is best suited as the blocking tight end in a two tight end offense. In this offense, the Chiefs will often split out the tight end. Ryan has demonstrated decent athleticism this summer, so the offense might feature more of a tightend rotation than a true #1/#2 demarcation. Tony Curtis is also in the mix.
OL: This unit might as well be called "Branden Albert and the question marks." Albert fared pretty well as a rookie left tackle in 2008, but showed several attributes that bode very well for future development. He learned quickly from his mistakes and varied his approach based on the opponent. Albert has the athleticism to handle both the speed and power rushers. His run blocking steadily progressed as well, as he learned to stay balanced better.
...and the question marks. Wide-bodied Damion McIntosh is slated to go at right tackle, and his run blocking is good enough to merit the starting nod. He is generally a liability in pass protection and needs to work hard at conditioning, as he tends to fade late in games. The bedrock of the line is left guard Brian Waters, but the Pro Bowler is beyond disgruntled and has repeatedly demanded he wants out. It didn't impact his play last year, but he isn't shy about his divisiveness. That cannot mix well with bombastic coach Todd Haley, who is the type of personality that rips the hotel desk clerk a new one because his rental car's satellite radio doesn't work. They need Waters' ability to open holes and mentor Albert, but enough might be enough. Kansas City brought in aged veteran Mike Goff to man right guard, but he appeared done two years ago in San Diego. The biggest problem is certainly at center. Incumbent Rudy Niswanger was terrible, but the Chiefs went out and signed the one starting center definitively worse than him, former Bengal Eric Ghiaciuc. His ex-teammates were genuinely surprised he got signed by another team. The depth is young and underwhelming, though I do like swing tackle Herb Taylor, mainly because he wears sunglasses while he plays -- even inside domes. Guard Brian de la Puente has impressed at right guard early in camp, and could wind up seizing the starting center gig.
Defense:
DL: This disappointing group underwent a major overhaul this offseason. Gone is the 4-3 front and in comes the hybrid 3-4/4-3 scheme favored by new coordinator Clancy Pendergast, last with Arizona. The group cannot get much worse than last year, when the team bagged a record-low 10 sacks and ranked in the bottom 10 of NFL history in opposing yards per carry, third down conversion, and first downs allowed (they were spared dead last by the putrid disaster that was Detroit's defense). But it might not be much better despite the scheme change and two prominent rookie additions. In the last two drafts the Chiefs have spent two firsts and a third on three players (Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson, Alex Magee) who are all ideally three-technique tackles. The 3-4 front doesn't use a three-technique, or even two tackles. It's a mishmash that will likely be resolved with Jackson starting at left end, Dorsey manning the right side, and Magee rotating in behind both of them. Dorsey had a disappointing rookie campaign, unable to show his explosive quickness or shed blocks well. Now he'll have to face quicker tackles instead of more power-based guards, which seems to exacerbate his problems. What made him special was his quickness and ability to knife between the guard and center before they knew what hit them; the Chiefs have moved him outside where his speed and quickness are run-of-the-mill and his iffy run anchoring is a detriment. Jackson, this year's third overall pick, is the opposite type of end. He gained renown as a great run anchor who controls blockers but struggled to get consistent burst into the backfield at LSU. He should fit nicely on the left side and immediately becomes the team's top run stuffer in the front seven, but expecting more than about 3.5 sacks a year from Jackson is too much. Magee is very athletic but plays very tall, though he has experience playing end and even a little outside linebacker at Purdue. When the Chiefs use the four-man front, expect Magee to line up outside Jackson.
The nose tackle is Tank Tyler, an up-and-down behemoth with good enough lower-body strength to handle the 0-technique. He has struggled with using leverage and does not have much of a punch for a guy named "Tank." Veteran Ron Edwards is a capable rotation interior space eater, and if he plays this summer like he did in the final weeks of 2008 could win the starting job. Tyler has impressed the coaches early on, so there is a fair chance the nose won't be much of a problem, but the last coaching staff was similarly teased by young Tyler. Alfonso Boone provides veteran depth and size with solid effort, plus the versatility to play any of the line spots as needed. Wallace Gilberry has some juice as a pass rusher, as 'Bama fans consistently reminded me during the 2008 draft season.
LB: If the Chiefs are to avoid finishing dead last in sacks once again, this group will have to provide significantly more pressure. The move to the 3-4 front means the outside guys will be called upon to rush the passer and the inside guys to tackle anything between the hash marks. That should suit Derrick Johnson just fine at one of the inside spots. Johnson is as naturally talented as they come, but he has struggled some with quickly diagnosing the plays and dropping into coverage. He won't have as much of either to do in his new role, and could very well blossom into a Jerod Mayo-like Pro Bowler -- his ceiling is that high. Veteran Zach Thomas has the inside track to be the other starter, but he looked completely done in Dallas last year. Monty Beisel came with coaches Pendergast and Haley from Arizona and should wind up seeing action on running downs. Corey Mays is a high-effort plugger with some athletic potential inside as well. Demorrio Williams is the #3 linebacker at pretty much every spot on the depth chart after a frustrating first season that validated the Falcons giving up on him so quickly, perhaps the only good decision Bobby Petrino made.
Outside is the big variable. Mike Vrabel can't cover anyone anymore, but he can still bring the heat off the edge and holds his ground against the run. His football IQ is Einstein-esque and he can capably line up on either side. The Patriots rarely part with useful parts, however, and Vrabel no longer has the legs to be a feature performer. They hope they have one on the other side in Tamba Hali. Hali lacks functional strength but has decent instincts and will benefit from playing off the line. Without having to worry about fighting blockers right of the bat against the run, Hali could finally emerge as the impact pass rusher the Chiefs thought they were getting with their 2006 first round pick. Turk McBride is making the same switch after being a tweener in the 4-3 front. He has impressed coaches with his burst around the edge but is strictly a pass rush specialist; one camp observer reported "the lines on the field have a better chance of making an open field tackle" than McBride. Keep an eye on Andy Studebaker, a D-III project who has made some noise this summer as an edge rusher. If he can come anywhere close to the disruptive force I saw when Wheaton played Hope, he'll help the defense with his intensity and closing speed.
DB: The rebuild started here last year, and started quite well. Starting two rookies at corner led to some headaches, but Brandon Carr and especially Brandon Flowers showed real promise. Flowers has the look and aura of a future Pro Bowler, very physical but also very quick. Like most Virginia Tech defensive backs, he does not back down from anyone or lack for self-confidence, but he wears it well (unlike DeAngelo Hall or Jimmy Williams). His markedly improved run support as the year progressed was a pleasant development. Carr made the jump from the best D-II program (Grand Valley State, go Lakers!) to the AFC's worst and generally acquitted himself nicely. He has good size and knows how to use it, and he closes quickly on the ball. Carr does not have great long speed and needs help over the top, but he also showed solid run support and some oomph in his hits. Yet another rookie, Maurice Leggett, wasn't out of place as the nickel back and steadily improved before missing the final three games. He showed good awareness of routes and peeled off into run defense well. He will fight with journeyman Travis Daniels, a bigger corner who just hasn't been able to translate great athletic ability into consistent play. Rookie Donald Washington seems destined for that exact sort of career himself -- he is an athletic marvel but couldn't crack the starting lineup at Ohio State because of inconsistent play and effort.
The starting safeties came into the league together as well, and Bernard Pollard and Jarrad Page have grown together into a capable duo with good chemistry. Pollard starts at strong safety and led the team in tackles last year. He closes quickly and has a good sense of where the play is headed. Man coverage is not his forte, but he is smart enough to not get burned too often. Page is more of a playmaker against the pass, ripping four interceptions (he dropped three others) and doing a nice job of covering the deep middle. He is instinctive and quick, though like Pollard he is not a speedster. The two fourth year men have developed a good symbiosis in pre-snap movement and coverage switches; neither starter was as effective when veteran reserve John McGraw came into the game, and McGraw generally played well enough on his account. The Chiefs signed oft-injured former Bear Mike Brown, a great field general and difference-maker in the scant occasions he's been well enough to play the last five years. It's a savvy low-risk signing that should only help strengthen the unit. It also could mean second-year man Dajuan Morgan is in real peril of not making the roster after a disappointing rookie year and missing the first few days of camp with a "minor" injury.
Special Teams: Mr. Irrelevant certainly is not so for the Chiefs, who took South Carolina kicker Ryan Succop with the last pick in the draft. He should beat out Connor Barth for the job, though they have the exact same scouting report -- big leg on kickoffs, good field goal range but spotty accuracy from within 40 yards. I always root for Mr. Irrelevant and that stigma could give the whole unit a lighthearted lift. Punter Dustin Colquitt was his steady self, booming more than half of his punts greater than 48 yards with good hang time. The coverage and return units were not good, but with all the roster turnover they should look quite different this year, for better or worse. Rookie Quinten Lawrence will challenge Dantrell Savage for return duties, though the coaching staff has hinted that Bobby Engram is also in the mix. That's right -- a 36-year-old possession receiver with no returns this century just might be the best option to field punts. That tells you no matter how much progress has been made, there is still a long way to go before this team sniffs the playoffs.
3 Keys To The Season:
1. How quickly does all the new (and aging) talent mesh with the new coaching staff?
1a. Where are the hidden gems, and how much can they shine?
2. Is Matt Cassel a legit franchise quarterback or was he just the product of the Patriots' greatness around him?
3. Will the switch to the 3-4 improve the pathetic pass rush without weakening the already poor run defense?
Forecast: This team bottomed out in 2008 and the wholesale changes were needed. It's still a long way to climb, but the Chiefs have brought in just enough veterans with just enough left that they should be competitive most weeks and steal a few wins here and there. The growing pains with all the youngsters on defense might be painful, but should pay off in another season or two. Though they do resemble the 2008 Dolphins, they do not have as much in place on either line or the veteran stabilizing quarterback. As for 2009, the schedule makers did them little favor -- they play the entire NFC East in weeks 3-6, with physical San Diego and Baltimore also coming before the bye. They'll be fortunate to start out any better than 2-6 but should be a much better post-bye team. Give them four wins in their final five games and a 6-10 finish as they build towards a playoff run in 2010.
-- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com. |
