| Jeff Risdon. 31st August, 2009 - 3:34 pm
 2008 record: 11-5, lost in AFC Championship game
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +13, Sack Differential: +1, Point Differential: +141
Coming In: CB Dominique Foxworth, C Matt Birk, CB/RS Chris Carr, TE L.J. Smith, WR Kelley Washington
Going Out: C Jason Brown, LB Bart Scott, DE Marques Douglas, S Jim Leonhard, QB Kyle Boller, CB Corey Ivy
Key Rookies: T Michael Oher, DE/LB Paul Kruger, TE Davon Drew
Offense
QB: For a guy who wasn’t supposed to play as a rookie, Joe Flacco sure turned out great. Only starting because Kyle Boller shredded his shoulder and Troy Smith caught a freakishly rare ailment, Flacco seized the day and took the team to the playoffs. Blessed with a cannon arm that he unleashes effortlessly, Flacco demonstrated poise and accuracy. Few QBs throw a better deep ball. Tall and able to move well for a bigger QB, Flacco already looks the part of a franchise QB. Like all young signal-callers, he struggled with reading mixed coverages and held onto the ball too long, too often. He threw interceptions in bunches, but with a QB guru like Cam Cameron mentoring him, Flacco should progress quickly. The issue will be how well Flacco adjusts to the adjustments defenses will make now that they have a season of game tape on him. One of the reasons he lost out on the starting job at Pittsburgh (to Tyler Palko) was his aura of meat-headedness.
The aforementioned Smith looks nothing like Flacco. He’s short, almost never stands still in the pocket (or even in the pocket), and is far more likely to throw the ball away too early than take the hit or force a ball into coverage. He does have a strong arm too, and Smith is also a cool cucumber and steady leader. If Flacco were to hit a sophomore slump or get hurt, the Ravens wouldn’t lose much if Smith came in and played to his strengths. The former Heisman winner also presents an intriguing option as a Wildcat, including using Flacco as a target as they did against the Raiders last year for a touchdown. John Beck clings to the clipboard in a desperate attempt to avoid being the worst 2nd round draft pick (MIA 2007) this side of Dan Bazuin. He and veteran Cleo Lemon are slugging it out to see who is least offensive to the offense as the #3.
RB: Baltimore uses a triumvirate that doesn’t get any sort of fancy moniker, but it’s no less effective than the more heralded trios. I’m a huge fan of hybrid FB/RB LeRon McClain, a bruising runner with great vision and leg drive. Coach Harbaugh started McClain as a short-yardage back on a trial basis, but he turned out to have some big-play ability in a very large package. McClain can still effectively lead block for Willis McGahee and Ray Rice, and he flashed decent hands last year as well, though he must curb the fumblitis. With McClain lined up in front, he represents a very rare commodity--a fullback that is a rushing threat. That coelacanth presents major issues for smaller defensive fronts, sort of the anti-Wildcat. McClain probably won’t get over 200 carries again, so caveat draftor for you fantasy geeks.
There is some controversy over who gets listed as the starting RB between Rice and McGahee. The more versatile guy is McGahee, a powerfully built speedster who is adept at breaking inside runs to the outside. He’s struggled with a host of minor injuries that slow him down a little, and he’s never going to win Mr. Congeniality, but his teammates respect his head-on style and effectiveness. It’s a contract year for McGahee, and probably the last chance he’s got at landing a big one--almost certainly with another team. That sort of situation has produced some freakishly prolific outputs in the past, and he fits well in Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron’s scheme. Expect a near split in carries between McGahee and Rice, a smaller, quicker outside-the-tackles darter. Diminutive in size but not lacking toughness, Rice is a very good receiver that can turn a simple screen into a 25-yard outburst. He still uses a stop/start move that I loathe far too often (defenders love static targets!), and his pass protection must improve if he wants to completely push McGahee out of the picture. When Rice is paired with McClain, the Ravens get a thunder/lightning package in the backfield at the same time, and Cameron expertly deploys plays that take advantage of their divergent skills. If anyone gets hurt, rookie Cedric Peerman is a bigger version of Rice but needs some seasoning.
WR/TE: The abrupt retirement/return of Derrick Mason epitomizes how perilously thin the Ravens are here. Mason is no longer a legit #1 wideout, but he’s the only receiver on the roster who would even make a solid #2 and they were up the proverbial creek without him. Always crafty and still in great command of his deceptive speed, Mason is sure-handed and runs good routes. His toughness is the stuff of legends, playing through a separated shoulder that has sent many a WR to IR, and that plays extremely well in this locker room.
Mark Clayton is the #2, and when he’s healthy he fits the offense well. Clayton has good speed and plays big for his frame, but nagging injuries are always, well, nagging him. He does bring versatility, witness his TD throw in last year’s opener and his impressive work on reverses. Demetrius Williams has moved from “if he can stay healthy he’ll be a good one” status to “anything he ever contributes is gravy” mode. He has just 33 catches the last two seasons and has not been up to snuff as a blocker when healthy. The Ravens rarely use three or four wideout sets and throw to those guys even less, so it’s not a pressing issue unless Clayton or Mason get hurt...which happens more often than not. Marcus Smith had nice potential with his size and hands, but he’s already lost for the season. That leaves the door wide open for Kelley Washington, a physically freakish specimen who just hasn’t panned out as a ball catcher. He’s probably used up his “upside” already, but he has the mentality and toughness that epitomizes Ravens football and is well worth the attempt. Justin Harper continues to be a superfluous athletic body at wideout, just as he was at Virginia Tech; he’s not without skill but isn’t good enough to force the opportunity. Yamon Figurs needs to make the team as the primary return man or else his receiving spot is lost to either Biren Ealy or big Ernie Wheelwright.
Todd Heap is no longer the receiving force at tight end that he was a few years back, and he’s not consistent enough as a blocker to merit any more diminished skills as a receiver. In a bit of redundancy, the Ravens brought in the eerily similar LJ Smith from Philadelphia. Smith is already hurt (notice a theme?) and rookie Davon Drew has impressed in his stead during camp and preseason. Baltimore annually has an unexpected breakout rookie; this year the smart money is on Drew to be that guy.
OL: A couple of prominent new additions should keep this unit as one of the better, and deeper, lines in the league. Center Matt Birk fills Jason Brown’s sizable shoes with more veteran savvy and run blocking power, but he’s not as quick or agile in pass protection despite being smaller. He’s a Harvard grad, so expect him to figure out ways to remain an above-average player in his new setting. 'The Blind Side' subject Michael Oher will start at right tackle as the Ravens’ first round pick this year. Run blocking will not be a problem--he’s more than proved that in the preseason--but his pass protection is a downgrade from Adam Terry (on IR already) or Willie Anderson (retired).
The left side is in great hands with tackle Jared Gaither and guard Ben Grubbs. Gaither is 6’8” and has very long, strong arms. He has learned to effectively shade to the inside in pass protection, relying on his natural size and length to make the trip around the outside long enough for Flacco to get rid of the ball. The Ravens often deploy a TE to his side to help chip the speedier edge rushers; in fact, the Ravens use tight end pass protection more than every other team. Gaither, like most taller tackles, has trouble run blocking smaller targets in space, and he must cut back on the boneheaded penalties--two of his holding penalties wiped out TD passes. Grubbs is an exceptional drive run blocker, a smashmouth ball of aggressive power. He’s no slouch in pass protection either. Rounding out the starters is RG Chris Chester, a converted center and a “jack of all trades, master of none” type players. Marshall Yanda is bigger than Chester and a better run blocker, but Chester wins out on being more reliable. Yanda can also play RT, and that versatility of depth makes him better suited to be the 6th lineman. O’Neil Cousins got some playing time as a rookie and will be the primary backup at tackle. Another second-year player, David Hale, has had a strong summer and will see more snaps as an interior reserve. Bryan Mattison is transitioning from DL to OL and has some promise.
Defense
Losing Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan to the Jets shouldn’t be a huge hit in terms of schematics. The Ravens don’t really fit as a 3-4, a 4-3, or any other conventional label. At times there are six linemen, sometimes just one; their nickel package could have five corners with Ed Reed. It’s a nightmare of unpredictable matchups and diverse talent that takes great pride in what they do.
DL: My latest football man crush is Haloti Ngata, the massively talented Pro Bowl tackle. A world-class caliber rugby player, Ngata has clearly translated the scrum skills to the gridiron effectively. Amazingly athletic and nimble, Ngata can shoot through gaps just as well as he can stonewall an interior run. He’s also adept at dropping into coverage and knows what to do when a ball comes within striking distance. Did I mention I have a football man crush on him?
Kelly Gregg will be welcomed back up front after missing 2008. A playmaking big man who can play on the nose or in a gap scheme, Gregg is lithe for a hulking mass and, when paired with Ngata, gives the Ravens great versatility to mix things up from snap to snap. He pushes Justin Bannan back to a valuable reserve role, where he fits better. Gregg provides much more pocket crashing ability, though Bannan wasn’t bad at all against the run. Trevor Pryce can still crash the pocket himself despite his advancing age. The Ravens would like to see him finish more of his rushes with sack paydirt, but having a 34-year old end that can still finish among the league leaders at his position in QB pressures is not taken for granted. Dwan Edwards has played his way back into the rotation with a strong summer. DL coach Clarence Brooks is one of the best in the business at imbuing open his lieges opponent-specific plans of attack.
LB: Not many teams could afford to lose a dynamic presence like Bart Scott and expect almost no regression, but Baltimore is an exception. Future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis is in the midst of drinking from the fountain of newfound youth, looking more like his old self after a couple of down seasons. Still a revered leader and menacing intimidator, Lewis has focused on improving his lower-body agility and is once again a real factor in pass defense and on the blitz. He’s not as quick at closing on the ball as he used to be, and he dives at feet instead of lowering his shoulder more than he should, but Lewis is still playing at a Pro Bowl level at a time when most guys his age are polishing their high school coaching résumés.
Second-year Tavares Gooden inherits Scott’s role as kohai. Gooden has scant experience but possesses the athletic ability and instincts to become an impact backer. He plays with a reckless abandon that causes durability issues, but his hard-hitting style and great closing speed make it worth the risk. Jameel McClain is bigger and played more last year, and he will see time against power formations and in short-yardage packages. McClain has good body control and excellent timing on his blitzes. Rookie Jason Phillips has hard-hitting upside as further inside depth, though he likely won’t see the field without injuries. Of course, the Ravens lost the second-most games to starting defenders in 2008, so he might get a chance--if he can recover enough from his own knee injury.
Terrell Suggs remains as a pass-rushing demon on the outside, though that status is somewhat tenuous. After an acrimonious contract negotiation that led to Baltimore franchise tagging him and Suggs sitting out all OTAs, Suggs has missed almost the entire summer with an Achilles strain. His speed is his calling card, and if the nagging injury disrupts his burst Suggs goes from a dynamic edge rusher and impact player to a serviceable starter. His game is not without warts--opponents love to screen right behind him, and he has more penalties than any OLB in the league over the last two years--but the Ravens live with it because he is truly an elite pass rusher. Jarrett Johnson starts on the other side, though saying “side” implies too much rigidity to how the Ravens deploy their backers. Johnson finally looks comfortable playing in space after making the conversion from end, and his stoutness against the run is a key cog in what the Ravens do defensively. 2nd round pick Paul Kruger is a similar end/OLB hybrid player who is more noted for pass rushing, though you cannot question his toughness: he has no spleen after a car accident, and suffered numerous stab wounds in a fight. He will inherit Suggs’ role if T-Sizzle can’t go. Antwan Barnes is good in coverage and has shown some juice in limited opportunities off the bench. Brendon Ayanbadejo is emergency depth that is on the roster for his special teams play, where he’s one of the best in the league.
DB: As Ed Reed goes, so goes the Ravens defense. In 2006 and again in 2008, Reed merited serious consideration as Defensive Player of the Year and the Ravens made the playoffs led by a dominant playmaking defense. In 2005 (when he missed six games) and 2007, when Reed was nothing special, the defense was merely good and the team couldn’t break the six-win barrier. A true dynamic playmaker with incredible physical assets and mental intangibles, Reed is the biggest impact player at safety since Ronnie Lott. He isn’t afraid to take chances and often gets rewarded for doing so, and they’re already molding a bust in Canton for five years after he retires. Expect Reed to have another awesome season. It helps him that Dawan Landry will come back after missing almost all of 2008 with a neck issue. Landry is steady and not afraid to poke his nose inside the box, though when he’s coming back from a spinal column injury that might change. Reed himself is also fighting a neck injury, though you’d never know it by watching him play. Elyria, OH native Haruki Nakamura showed decent coverage instincts as a backup. He and fellow 2008 draftee Tom Zbikowski provide a mouthful of young depth at safety, though both appear to be career backups. The team is hopeful one of them steps up and fills Jim Leonhard’s shoes.
Starting at CB will be Domonique Foxworth and Fabian Washington. Foxworth showed a surprising acumen for breaking up passes in Atlanta last year, and he provides more mobility and reliability in coverage than the departed Chris McAllister, who had clearly lost more than a step. Washington played well during his first year in Baltimore, using his world-class speed to keep receivers from getting behind him and compensate for his poor footwork on shorter route coverage. Chris Carr will be the nickel back almost by default, as Samari Rolle has missed summer activities with injury and Frank Walker just not being very dynamic. Walker is the classic “let the guy make the catch and then tackle him” corner, whereas Carr will jump routes and play more aggressively in slot coverage. In this defense, taking chances is encouraged; though having a solid #4 like Frank Walker is a nice feature. Rookie Ladarius Webb is a depth project. This group of corners is smallish as a group; not one of the top 5 is taller than 5’11” or weighs more than 200, which could be an issue in a division with Hines Ward, Limas Sweed, Braylon Edwards, and Chris Henry.
Special Teams: The biggest battle in camp is for the kicker spot, where original Raven Matt Stover will be missed. Steve Hauschka has a booming leg that the team loves for kickoffs, but rookie Graham Gano has a rep for being more accurate from further out on field goals. Hauschka should win the gig, but Stover is on speed dial. Sam Koch comes back as an asset at punter; he’s one of the best bad weather poochers in the league and excels at coffin corner kicks. Chris Carr succeeds Yamon Figurs as the primary return man, though statistically they’re about the same player. Carr is a little bulkier but just as quick. Kelley Washington has made a name on coverage units and he will help in that regard more than he does on offense. The kickoff coverage unit needs improved lane integrity, as Hauschka often kicks the ball long but low.
3 Keys to the season:
1. How much the key players on defense (Reed, Lewis, Ngata, Suggs) miss departed coordinator Rex Ryan. Expect a very similar scheme, but sometimes the marriage between players and coordinators are perfect. That was the case in Baltimore, and the stepwife that is Greg Mattison must keep the family together.
2. The progress of Flacco at QB and Rice at RB. This team has a dearth of playmaking talent and needs these second-year players to thrive, not slump, as sophomores.
3. This team has yo-yoed for the last five seasons, and that sort of behavior tends to keep manifesting upon itself. The 2009 season is the “down” year in the progression. The Ravens have to figure out how to stop that vicious cycle, and getting off to a strong start is the best way to do so. They get three home games (KC, CIN, CLE) where they will be heavy favorites, but three roadies (NE, SD, MIN) against legit Super Bowl contenders. They must win one of those to keep the negatives to a minimum and the record above .500 heading into the bye week.
Forecast: In meteorology, you can tell if someone is an optimist or a pessimist by how they describe something like the Ravens. To an optimist, they are mostly sunny with a few clouds and a pleasant day. A pessimist calls them a mix of clouds and sun and a chance for rain. I like the sunshine here quite a bit, but darn those clouds. Between the lack of oomph at WR, the loss of a great defensive coordinator, a rough road schedule, and some inevitable regression by Flacco, I see more clouds in more ominous formations than a lot of people. Last year I saw much the same thing and they rained all over my prediction of 7-9 (though they were my top AFC sleeper!). This year I’m giving more credence to the sunny skies and forecasting a 9-7 finish, just enough wins to seize the final Wild Card spot in a top-heavy but shallower AFC. |
