| Jeff Risdon. 4th September, 2009 - 10:11 am
 2008 record: 11-5, won AFC East, lost in Wild Card round
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +17, Sack Differential: +16, Point Differential: +28
Coming In: C Jake Grove, S Gibril Wilson, OLB Cameron Wake, OLB Quentin Moses, OLB/DE Jason Taylor, DT Tony McDaniel
Going Out: C Samson Satele, WR Ernest Wilford, CB Andre Goodman, S Renaldo Hill, DE Vonnie Holliday, G Ichechuku Ndukwe, QB John Beck, G Andy Alleman
Key Rookies: CB Vontae Davis, CB Sean Smith, WR Brian Hartline, WR Patrick Turner, QB/WR Pat White
Offense:
QB: Last year I made the assertion that Chad Pennington was "Peyton Manning without the arm strength and pre-snap histrionics." I got some feedback questioning my sanity, but he who laughs last laughs best. Pennington won Comeback Player of the Year thanks to his outstanding accuracy, quick decision making, and unflappable leadership, spearheading the miraculous turnaround of the Dolphins. He does come with limitations, however. Slow afoot (but not afraid to run) and weak-armed, he was exposed in the playoff loss to Baltimore, where a creative defense that dropped into non-traditional coverages and got pressure up the gut. The biggest factor in the turnaround, offensively speaking, was the almost freakishly low amount of turnovers. Pennington does that as well as anyone, but as the Ravens game showed he is not immune to throwing some picks. Now that Brad Johnson is finally out to pasture, no quarterback puts less zip on the ball beyond about 15 yards than Pennington.
Chad Henne is the designated quarterback of the future, though he rarely played as a first round rookie and will ride the pine again unless Pennington gets hurt. Because the elder Chad has a propensity for getting hurt (hence his two wins of the Comeback Player of the Year award), Henne could be thrust into the fray. What Pennington lacks in downfield range, Henne more than makes up for it with his cannon arm and high velocity. At Michigan he showed a tendency to make mistakes in bunches, and his mobility is worse than Pennington's.
Pat White has no such trouble with mobility. The second round draft pick is too often pigeonholed as just a Wildcat specialist, though he has very intriguing potential running those gimmick plays. Smart, fairly accurate, and showing a stronger arm than advertised, White has developmental upside as the third option. It will be interesting to see how coach Tony Sparano handles game-day actives, because if White is listed as the third quarterback, he won't be able to play as the 'WildPat' before the fourth quarter of games.
RB: Ronnie Brown factored into the Comeback Player voting, just like Pennington. Returning from a torn ACL that has cost him some wiggle and perhaps half a step of long speed, Brown modified his style and bounced back to being a highly effective starter. He gained the most notoriety for being the 'Wildcat' general, but he's still got mojo from a conventional set too, including the best spin move in the business. Brown is a very good receiver and did a little more after the catch in 2008 than he has in the past. He will still dance into holes too often, and the extra breakaway gear is gone, but he's still a very good starting running back for the way the Dolphins use him
Ricky Williams redeemed himself nicely as the #2 option. Powerful and not afraid to initiate the contact, Williams still has good balance and shifty feet. Like Brown, he is an accomplished receiver and earned raves from teammates for his pass protection pickups. He thrived when Brown ran the Wildcat, and he can still cut at full speed. Together they make a sound 1-2 punch, albeit a slower one than most teams like. Patrick Cobbs brings more speed but too often goes down on first contact. He's a very good special teams player and needs to translate more of that toughness into his running style.
Fullback Lousaka Polite is more of a short-yardage specialist than a lead blocker, though observers tell me he's improved in that regard this offseason. Keep an eye on Lex Hilliard, who has turned heads in camp with his herky-jerky speed and will stick as the fourth running back. Miami often deploys packages with two or even three backs all in the game, so depth is imperative -- and they've got it.
WR/TE: There is a lot of fluctuation here. What is settled: Ted Ginn Jr. will start and be the primary deep threat, and Davone Bess will be the primary slot receiver. Ginn showed improvement with the intricacies of the position but still gets bullied off routes and doesn't fight for the ball well enough. He has been too easy to tackle after the catch, especially considering his world-class speed. Part of his issue is that Pennington cannot throw the ball hard enough, deep enough to allow Ginn to just streak behind everyone as he did so well at Ohio State. Bess lacks great speed but catches anything near him and has a little toughness and wiggle to him after the catch. He quickly developed chemistry with Pennington, who often hit him perfectly in stride on short crossing routes.
After those two, there is no shortage of potential but not a lot of proven results. Rookie Brian Hartline has shined in camp and will likely earn the other starting outside wideout spot, opposite his old OSU teammate Ginn. His downfield blocking and high football IQ are in his favor, though he's not a real burner and tends to double-catch too many balls. Fellow rookie Patrick Turner has great size and deceptive speed, but he's struggled to get separation in preseason action and is a poor blocker for his size. Expect to see him primarily in red zone packages. Greg Camarillo reminds me a great deal of Brian Brennan, a sure-handed, undersized but tough possession-type receiver that quarterbacks and hardcore fans adore but casual fans wonder why he ever plays. He has not progressed as quickly as expected from a knee injury, so that bears watching. Brandon London is likely a game-day inactive or injury fill-in.
Starting at tight end will be Anthony Fasano, an absolute gift from Dallas last offseason. He's perfect for Pennington with his ability to quickly turn and catch the ball, securing it quickly and shielding off the defender. Fasano is quicker than he looks, though he's not going to scare any safeties deep. He is the primary one tight end starter based on his superior blocking to David Martin, though Martin is a more gifted athlete. They often play together and do so pretty effectively, as they are similar enough to do the same things from either side, which keeps defenses guessing which one is doing what on each play. Rookie John Nalbone is a developmental project who had a surprisingly good camp.
OL: The Dolphins took some flak for selecting Jake Long with the #1 overall pick, but the massive Michigan Man immediately proved the doubters wrong. He already ranks among the very best left tackles in run blocking, and he allowed just 2.5 sacks -- not bad for a rookie. He's tall and doesn't always bend his knees comfortably, which leads to problems against smaller, quicker ends but especially rush outside linebackers that have room to get a start on him. Long also proved quite adept at playing outside right tackle Vernon Carey in the unbalanced line with the Wildcat package. Carey thrived back on his more natural right side, where he didn't have to deal with the more fleet rushers that made him a liability on the left. He's a straightforward mauler with great arm extension and a good sense of what the defender is trying to do against him. Carey can still be had by pass rushers who can cross his hips.
The interior line will look a little different, as the team dealt center Samson Satele to Oakland for Jake Grove in a rare exchange of players that makes sense for both teams. Grove is better built to handle 0-technique tackles, though he cannot pull out as well as Satele. The two guards that finished 2008 as starters -- Andy Alleman and Ike Ndukwe -- were both dealt to Kansas City in late August for a late draft pick, which explains a lot about their value and how poorly the G-C-G package held up in traditional sets late in the year. Donald Thomas takes over at right guard, where he quickly earned status as a Parcells favorite and started as a rookie before breaking his leg in the opener. His athleticism and drive blocking should be upgrades, if he can stay healthy. Justin Smiley had a solid year at left guard, and the line quickly deteriorated when he went down last year. He pulls and traps well but can be slow to pick up inside stunts and rushers. Shawn Murphy is hoping to parlay an impressive offseason body of work into more playing time. He represents the bulk of the depth inside, so good health to the starters is imperative. The backup tackles are Brandon Frye and rookie Andrew Gardner, neither of whom inspire confidence.
Defense:
DL: In Kendall Langford, Miami has a young building block with great potential at the end position. Langford wasn't as heralded as fellow rookie Philip Merling, but the pride of Petersburg, VA (where I once was a teacher) broke out with sacks in his first two games and provided outstanding run defense all season long. Thickly-built but blessed with great short-area quickness, Langford showed an above-average ability to get off blocks and make plays. Merling wasn't as dynamic and disappointed as a pass rusher on the other side. He struggled facing beefier lineman from up close after playing further off the ball in college, often getting pushed far backwards on run plays. Randy Starks (also from Petersburg) will take some of his snaps away unless Merling shows more consistent results. Starks has better lower-body strength, and last year he flashed some ability to twist inside and get to the quarterback, though he doesn't always have great awareness of where the ball has gone. Lionel Dotson was nearly Mr. Irrelevant 2008, but his strong work habits and upside have earned him a reserve role. The coaches have made upgrading toughness against the run a priority, so the impetus is on Starks and Langford to better hold the edges.
Nose tackle Jason Ferguson is still hanging on at age 34, but he's the only viable option on the roster and will be asked to do a lot more than the coaches would like to place on his shoulders. Stout against the run and one of the best at using leverage moves to get free, Ferguson is strictly a two-down player at this point. The guy the Dolphins used in his stead on third downs, veteran Vonnie Holliday, was let go for financial reasons even though the team doesn't really have anyone to replace him. Paul Soliai is constantly in the coaching doghouse for lax work habits and a seeming apathy towards the game. He has some physical talent but must show it during the week and not just on game days, because those type of players don’t often see the field on game days -- certainly not on a team led by Bill Parcells. Former Jaguar Tony McDaniel struggles with leverage (he's 6'7" and high cut) but has good fight.
LB: Jason Taylor is back in Miami, which makes for a harmonious re-marriage that sets all right with the world again. He struggled in Washington but returns to his natural strong-side linebacker spot, where he will upgrade the pass rush. And if preseason is any indication, he'll impact the run defense positively as well. Still in phenomenal physical shape, the Dolphins won't overuse him to keep him fresh and healthy, which he was not in 2008. On the weak side, Joey Porter had a renaissance with 17.5 sacks and drew eight holding penalties. Brashly relentless and blessed with outstanding closing burst, Porter held up very well against the run last year, which comes as a surprise to his former Steelers teammates. How well that persists is an open question, and at 32 he's reaching the point where he can't rely on speed as much. NFL history is littered with declining veterans who come up with one last great season (and contract) and then go back into decline, and Porter is a potential poster child for this.
To that end, Miami signed CFL standout Cameron Wake. The sackmaster quickly washed out of the NFL in 2005 but found a home terrorizing quarterbacks with freakish speed off the edge in Canada. A bit on the light side and not very physical, Wake must prove he is more than Mark Anderson of the Bears, who bagged 11 sacks with just a speed move around the outside as a rookie and has been almost completely neutered since then. The weakside run defense was already a problem, and Wake must show he can hold his own. Quentin Moses has impressed in camp, emerging from roster afterthought to productive member of the rotation. He has learned how to control his body and use his size better, though he still lacks burst and fluidity. He has usurped Charlie Anderson on the 2-deep. Former starter Matt Roth will struggle to make the team after missing the offseason with an injury.
The inside features solid-but-unspectacular vets Akin Ayodele and Channing Crowder. Ayodele proved more than worth the fourth round pick used to get him (and Fasano) from Dallas. He is a stabilizing force who knows his role and his athletic limitations well. Crowder has chronically sore knees and is strictly a garbage tackler, notching loads of tackles too far downfield. He struggles in space, particularly when asked to cover backs flaring out, but is a very sure tackler. It's not a dynamic duo by any stretch, but they rarely make mistakes and are both respected in the locker room. Reggie Torbor is a versatile reserve who is more apt to make plays closer to the line of scrimmage, though he is too easy to block. Erik Walden is roster filler who must contribute on special teams.
DB: Miami scored a coup by picking up Gibril Wilson to pair with Yeremiah Bell at safety. They ranked 1-2 in the league in total tackles by safeties last season, while Wilson was compensating for a terrible defensive line in Oakland and Bell kept mopping up behind Miami's unreliable corners. Both are hard-nosed and smart and they should blend well together. They would like Bell to make more turnovers but will take his sure tackling and sound coverage. With Bell filling in behind the linebackers to help more against the run, Wilson can play more center field and hopefully snare more picks. Raiders fans will tell you Wilson was lousy in coverage last year, but some of that was schematic -- he lined up closer to the line than most safeties and he's not speedy enough to compensate in helping deep. The duo needs to click right away and stay healthy all year, as the only backups are Tyrone Culver and rookie Chris Clemons, neither of whom are anywhere close to starting material at this point.
Two rookies figure prominently at corner. Big Sean Smith will start on one side, and the second rounder has looked very fluid and instinctive for a converted wide receiver. His size (6'4", 215) is a major asset, and he has shown good break to the ball both at Utah and during camp. Miami faces a host of bigger wideouts, and Smith will primarily match up with them. Fellow rookie Vontae Davis also has good size but isn't as polished, particularly in footwork. At Illinois he had a tendency to lag in attention to detail and bite too hard on fakes. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they have a solid mentor and above-average starter opposite Smith in veteran Will Allen. Allen has a great fight/size of dog ratio and is adept at making plays on the ball, and his gutsiness in playing through a knee injury last year speaks volumes of his character and drive.
Nate Jones and Joey Thomas are the depth corners, with Jones seeing a lot more action. He's a game slot nickel back, and the team is confident enough with him (and the rookies) that they axed free agent signee Eric Green. It appears the end of the line has finally come for el busto Jason Allen, a former first rounder who proved that taking a hybrid corner/safety is a bad idea. Never good enough in coverage to be a corner and not tough enough or rangy enough to play safety, Allen represents all that was wrong with the Nick Saban era. He should also serve as an abject lesson in how to handle young Davis, who carries many of the same traits.
Special Teams: Rookie kicker Dan Carpenter and second year punter Brandon Fields are a solid young duo. Carpenter visibly got more confident as the year progressed, and his long kickoffs were a welcome upgrade. Fields has one of the quickest releases in the game and good directional ability, though he lacks a booming leg. Those two are fine, but the rest of the special teams are far from special . Ginn has been a bitter disappointment as a return man, ceding the punt return gig to Davone "Fair Catch" Bess. The coverage units struggled with lane integrity and tackling, and they also ranked near the top (that's bad in this case) in penalties. The backups at safety, linebacker, and wide receiver must perform better here, and that was a major emphasis in camp.
3 Keys To The Season:
1. Finding offensive success without relying so heavily on the Wildcat. It's not shocking to defenses anymore, and the Dolphins ranked 27th in offense the first two weeks of 2008 -- before they launched this overrated gimmicky plague upon the NFL. They must convert more drives into touchdowns.
2. Stopping the run, particularly the run between the tackles. Finding someone besides Joey Porter who can pressure the quarterback would help too.
3. Controlling negative momentum. Any time a team makes a huge leap like Miami did, regression is inevitable. The key is maintaining a winning attitude even if some early losses mount up. Fortunately for the Dolphins, Bill Parcells knows something about handling dramatic turnarounds and regression from his days in New York ... and Dallas.
Forecast: Everything broke wrong in 2007, then completely reversed course in 2008. As Jerry Cantrell sings, "somewhere in between the wrong and right, we fight." That fight is over which is the more realistic picture of this Dolphins team. The overhaul has been impressive, but repeating the 11-win magic is unrealistic. So is turning the ball over just 13 times or catching defenses off guard with a gimmick formation. The schedule is suitably rougher as well, the downside of going from fourth place to first. It's highly conceivable that the Dolphins open 0-3 (@ATL, IND, @SD), and the late-season schedule is considerably tougher than last year's, where they put on their playoff surge against a slew of bottom-feeders. I like this team and they will probably be a better overall squad than the playoff 2008 team, but the wins are going to be a lot harder to come by. Miami regresses to 7-9 in 2009.
-- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com. |
