| Jeff Risdon. 9th September, 2009 - 4:33 pm
 2008 record: 8-8, 4th in NFC East
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: 0 Sack Differential: -14 Point Differential: -31
Coming In: DT Albert Haynesworth, T Mike Williams, P Hunter Smith, DE Reynaldo Winn, G Derrick Dockery
Going Out: T Jon Jansen, CB Shawn Springs, DE Jason Taylor, LB Marcus Washington, DE Demetric Evans, P Ryan Plackemeier, G Pete Kendall
Key Rookies: LB Brian Orakpo, WR Marko Mitchell, DE Jeremy Jarmon, CB Kevin Barnes
Offense
QB: Jason Campbell is the definition of “embattled”. Entering his 3rd full season as the starter in Washington, Campbell has not been the dynamic force that the team (and its fan base) wants him to so desperately become. Campbell should benefit from the first taste of coaching continuity in his adult life, and Head Coach Jim Zorn appears to have figured out that Campbell is a vastly better decision maker from the shotgun formation. He is accurate but lacks both zip and touch on downfield throws, and his slow delivery gives DBs who are beaten more of a chance to recover and make a play. Still, it says a lot that his teammates voted him a captain and poo-pooed talks of bringing in anyone else. His mental toughness is admirable, and I have a strong inkling that the stability above him and the improvement of the receiving corps will help Campbell finally get some of the monkeys off his back. He would help his own cause if he wasn’t so quick to check down or wildly miss shorter throws to his right, as he does once or twice per game. Added bonus in his favor: Campbell is playing for his next contract, which has a funny way of producing spikes in effectiveness.
Todd Collins returns as the backup, though he did not see the field in 2008. He turns 38 during the season and hasn’t played more than five games in a season in over a decade, but there’s a reason why he’s stuck around for so long. Collins is smart, accurate, and knows the playbook inside out, able to step in with just a few warm-up tosses and lead the exact same offense. He doesn’t make waves about starting and has a future as a QB coach when he retires. With Colt Brennan going on IR once again, the Redskins will keep just 2 QBs, though they did sign Andre Woodson to the practice squad.
RB: Clinton Portis was a legit MVP candidate through the first half of 2008 before it all went into the toilet quickly. Beset by knee and hip problems that robbed him of any sort of juke and his trademark explosive cutting ability, Portis let his frustration show in openly quarreling with Coach Zorn. Fences appear to be mended, but it is worth noting that several teammates quietly appreciated Portis’ candidness and criticism. Still just 27 despite seeming to have been in the league for over a decade, Portis is a workhorse feature back who is exceptional in short-yardage and red zone situations. His pass blocking is the sort that coaches show to high school RBs as an instructional film, and he has good hands to boot. The knocks are his durability--he’s got a load of mileage on those tires--and his erstwhile aloofness. While his in-character press conferences are a treat for fans and reporters, if things aren’t going well it can rub teammates and coaches the wrong way.
Ladell Betts must prove he needs the ball more. Once considered one of the best and most prolific backups in the league, Betts has been very pedestrian the past couple of seasons. He’s not stylistically much different from Portis, which is nice when he’s filling in when Portis is hurt but makes it easier on the defense when he’s just providing a short spell. He has decent receiving skills but just hasn’t made things happen outside the tackles with the ball in his hands. Third-stringer Rock Cartwright is on the team for his special teams, not anything he does for the offense. This team screams out for a 3rd down scat-back type, which makes the release of Anthony Aldridge somewhat puzzling.
WR/TE: This group must step up if the Redskins are going to challenge for a playoff berth. Santana Moss’ wildly inconsistent career continued in 2008, and he’s to the point in his career where that isn’t going to change. Smallish but tough, speedy but not always quick, able to make freakish catches but just as likely to drop a gimmie touchdown, Moss has long been an enigma. He still reliably gets open in the 10-15 yard range, and when he’s on his game Moss remains a dangerous receiver and feisty team leader. If he can harness his first-half performance from last season, Moss is a Pro Bowler, but that’s probably asking too much. He is what he is, and production-wise that equates to 65-70 receptions for about 850 yards and a handful of touchdowns.
Those numbers aren’t good enough for a #1 receiver without getting a significant bolster from the rest of the wideouts. That’s where the two second-rounders from 2008 enter the equation. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly were terrible as rookies, but both have shown visible progress, especially Kelly. Long and smooth, it appears the NFL game has finally slowed down for Kelly, and with his physical package that’s a very positive development. The coaches have raved about his improved work habits, though it’s not hard to improve upon zero. More time at the blocking sled and at using his size to shield the ball would be handy. The Skins knew Thomas was a bit of a project when they drafted him, but just how big of a project caught them off-guard. Very physical and strong for his size, the Michigan State product never caught onto how to get separation with his atrocious footwork and obvious lack of confidence. Both of those noticeably improved over the offseason, but once again, it’s a long way up from ground zero to being a capable #2 or #3 option in the NFL. Antwan Randle El is the slot man and still a valuable contributor, but like Moss he is what he is at age 30--a sure-handed, quicker-than-fast underneath checkdown option that will catch 45-50 balls. He adds to his value by being a Wildcat threat, though the Redskins curiously used that quite a bit less than expected, seeing as that’s how Randle El made a name for himself in Pittsburgh. Rookie 7th rounder Marko Mitchell unexpectedly (to some) stuck as the 5th WR, and with his size and hands he could get some looks in red zone and short yardage packages.
At least they have a genuine force at tight end with Chris Cooley. Despite facing near-chronic double coverage, Cooley still snagged 83 balls at over 10 yards per clip. Forget his somewhat freakish inability to score a touchdown (he had just one, from Randle El no less); Cooley is an elite talent in his athletic prime. Campbell clearly trusts him--perhaps too much. He’s in the game for his receiving, though Cooley has shown some blocking aptitude. He is athletic enough to line up in the backfield and play H-Back, which is sort of a FB/TE hybrid, though it seems opposing defensive coordinators figured out quickly that whenever the Skins went into that formation, Cooley was going to get the ball on a delayed 5-yard flare out after feigning a block. Behind Cooley is draft bust-in-waiting Fred Davis, who wouldn’t have made the final cut last year as a rookie had he not been a 2nd round pick, and yeoman-like blocker Todd Yoder.
OL: Depending on whom you ask and the prevailing wind, this unit is either solid-but-shallow or a complete unfixable mess that will cost the Redskins any chance of success. I’m in camp with the former; the starting 5 are good enough, but the depth is problematic if forced into extended duty. LT Chris Samuels returns from a season where he gutted out Pro Bowl-caliber blocking despite fighting a bad knee, then tore his triceps late in the year. Samuels is a fearsome run blocker with a great nose for hitting defenders in space. His pass protection isn’t elite, and as the injuries and age keep increasing it could decline quickly. He fared better against 3-4 fronts (where his primary assignment had to run at him, giving him more time to react) and was particularly effective when Campbell was in the shotgun, but Samuels can be had by pass rushers with more than one trick in the bag. To that end, he has visibly lost about 15 pounds of bulk.
He gets a new running mate inside, as well as on the other side. With venerable veteran Pete Kendall shown the door, prodigal son Derrick Dockery returns to his old left guard spot. Dock didn’t exactly live up to his outrageous free agent contract in Buffalo, but he remains an above-average all-around guard. The Redskins must hope he can provide the same run blocking oomph that Kendall did before he wore down. Stephon Heyer has re-earned the RT job; he also won it in 2008, only to have some nervous coaches acquiesce to respected veteran Jon Jansen. Heyer generally outplayed Jansen, though he’s not as surly, and for once GM Vinny Cerrato decided to keep the young player that hasn’t fully developed yet over the bigger-named older guy who might be better today but not tomorrow. The Skins are fine at center with Casey Rabach, one of the best interviewees in the league and a scrappy, technically sound line anchor. Right guard Randy Thomas is coming back from multiple surgeries and was already the most questionable starter. He’s a chippy run blocker and a good cut blocker, but if he loses any more quickness or agility he’s in real danger of being done.
Then there’s the depth issue. Reclamation project Mike Williams earned the top backup tackle spot, a real credit to his character. The 4th overall pick in the 2002 draft, Williams ate and lazed his way out of the league, garnering the reputation as a giant apathetic softie. He is back down (yes, down) to 370 pounds and appears to have rediscovered the ability to move his feet while blocking. Even so, Williams still has a lot to prove, yet he’s the most proven reserve. Will Montgomery stole the top reserve G/C spot with a strong summer, and the former Hokie won’t be outworked, but his experience is scant. Chad Rinehart is more of a project than anticipated, while D’Anthony Batiste is a practice squad-level player who found an opening. This being Daniel Snyder’s team, don’t be surprised if a more recognizable name gets brought in before the end of September to bolster the depth.
Defense
DL: In signing Albert Haynesworth to the richest contract ever given to a defensive player, the Redskins added a dynamic force to the middle of their defense. A legit Defensive MVP candidate each of the last two seasons, Big Al collapses the pocket and commands double teams like no one else can. Incredibly quick for his size, Haynesworth has an array of moves and countermoves to wreak havoc in the opposing backfield. He also has the strength to anchor against the run, and the highlight of him being double-teamed by two Jaguars and still slamming Mo Jones-Drew to the ground is why he got a $100M contract. The Skins really need him for the pass rush, because the front four simply has not gotten the job done the past few years.
The run defense was already very good. Kedrick Golston and Cornelius Griffin are essentially the exact same player--active, stout run stuffers who can slip into the backfield on occasion, primarily against the run. Anthony Montgomery is a little more active as a pass rusher but not so good against the run. With everyone sliding back a spot on the 2-deep with Haynesworth’s arrival, the DT spot is both better and deeper than most.
At end the Skins don’t lack for experience. Andre Carter is 30, Renaldo Wynn is 35, and Philip Daniels is 36. Those are the top 3 guys, and Daniels will be welcomed back after missing 2008. All three are no-nonsense, savvy veterans who are better against the run but can notch the occasional sack. The team would love more production from Carter, who led the team with just 4 sacks last year. A healthy return by Daniels should keep Carter fresher later in games, where the Redskins notched just 7 second-half sacks all season, including 3 against the hapless Lions. 1st round pick Brian Orakpo will play rush end in nickel packages, and he might be the counterbalance that Carter needs to raise his sack total. Intriguing rookie Jeremy Jarmon, a supplemental draft pick, impressed in camp and could push the older guys for snaps if the run defense sloughs off. He has some juice as a pass rusher as well, albeit unfermented.
LB: Nobody should benefit more from Haynesworth’s arrival than MLB London Fletcher, a diminutive ball of aggression that won’t see near the amount of blockers he did in years past. At 34, Fletcher’s durability and quickness in coverage aren’t what they used to be, but nobody works harder or studies film more effectively. His leadership is invaluable to this team. That is important, because he is surrounded by a couple of talented neophytes. Rocky McIntosh mans the weak side, and he’s entering the point in his career where he should be making the leap from “when he gets it” to impact backer. Thus far it hasn’t happened, though he’s an adequate starter with good strength. His lack of instinct and occasional sloppy tackling keep him from making impact plays, something the Skins coaches would love to see him do more. He appears recovered from a balky knee that has slowed him, particularly in coverage.
Brian Orakpo, Washington’s first rounder, is the real wild card for the defense. A dynamic pass rusher at Texas, Orakpo is a physical marvel with enough strength to play end but enough speed and ability in space that the Redskins will use him as the base Sam backer. It will be a work in progress and the run defense could be an issue, but the Skins sorely needed a player with his disruptive ability on the outside. As mentioned earlier, he will slide to LDE on passing downs. Depth is real sketchy beyond 3rd year man H.B. Blades, who like Fletcher is short but a great student of the game. Converted DE Chris Wilson and undrafted rookie Robert Henson--who pushed 5th rounder Cody Glenn and veteran Robert Thomas off the roster--are one snap away from action. Any injury to Orakpo or Fletcher could be catastrophic.
DB: This unit is loaded with talent, though with a couple of caveats. Carlos Rogers was consistently fantastic during the strong start last year, but his play fell way off when DeAngelo Hall arrived. The high risk/reward Hall appeared more controlled after escaping the Raiders midseason, enough that the Skins rewarded him with a nice extension--one that Rogers was angling for himself. With Shawn Springs gone to New England, Rogers and Hall now must play nice as the starters. Both are legit 1st round talents who have often played as such, but both are also prone to mental lapses. Hall was brutal in Oakland after sulking his way out of Atlanta, using napalm on the bridges behind him. Rogers is in a contract year and must stay focused on the prize instead of worrying about Hall’s deal.
Fred Smoot isn’t close to being as good as he thinks he is, but he remains a pretty good nickel back. Very solid at coming off the slot and helping in run support, Smoot lacks the speed and burst to play in coverage for extended periods, and the Skins have toyed with moving him to safety. Physical rookie Kevin Barnes and undersized 2nd year man Justin Tryon are both likely to usurp Smoot at corner in the near future. Tryon showed marked improvement in spatial awareness during the preseason, while Barnes has good size and knows how to use it. If Barnes can stay healthy and Tryon carries over the offseason progress, the Redskins have fantastic depth at corner.
Safety is in safe hands with Laron Landry and Chris Horton. Landry has great range and quickly reacts to plays. The coaches would like him to create more turnovers, but Landry is a very solid all-around safety who isn’t afraid to stick his nose in the box. His high football IQ is shared by Horton, a revelation as a 7th rounder who was the best defensive rookie in the league until about Halloween. Physical and blessed with an innate sense of timing, Horton helped the run defense quite a bit. He’s not great in coverage and isn’t fast enough to consistently provide deep middle help, which is why Smoot could see more time at safety in the nickel and dime packages. Reed Doughty, who lost his starting spot to Horton, is a capable backup with added value on special teams, though he must prove he can stay healthy. Kareem Moore provides sound depth of the hard-hitting variety.
Special Teams: Lots of room for improvement here. Kicker Sean Suisham ranked near the bottom in both FG accuracy and kickoff distance, though he has been better in both areas in prior seasons. The revolving door of ineptitude at punter has spun to Punter Hunter Smith (I know that’s redundant, but it’s just too cool to say!), the former Colt. He should provide better hang time and some positional stability. At least long snapper Ethan Albright remains one of the best in the business. Rock Cartwright is an above-average kick return man, consistently netting very close to his 25 yards per return effort with little variation. Antwan Randle El has been a major disappointment at punt return, enough that Santana Moss and perhaps Devin Thomas an opportunity. The coverage units are quite good, led by FB Mike Sellers, who merits Pro Bowl consideration yearly in that capacity.
3 Keys to the season:
1. The progress of Jason Campbell and his young receivers. The talent is there, but it must blossom or else the Skins will once again struggle to score.
2. The impact of the two big-splash additions to the defense. Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo are expected to significantly upgrade the pass rush and pressure the opponents into mistakes and turnovers.
3. Coach Jim Zorn must improve. Too often he showed why he wasn’t even Plan B in Dan Snyder’s initial coaching search. His admission of feeling inadequate was refreshingly candid but also indicative of weakness, not exactly inspiring confidence from his underlings.
Forecast: I had mentally penciled in 7 or 8 wins for the Skins. Then I looked at their non-divisional schedule: STL, @DET, TB, KC, DEN, @OAK--that’s 6 almost gimmie wins, provided Washington doesn’t implode upon itself. Give them a split in the tough-but-not-impassable NFC East and a split in the other non-divisional games (@CAR, @ATL, NO, @SD) and this is a playoff team with 11 wins. The talent is in place to do just that, so long as Campbell and the passing game step up and Haynesworth has the expected impact on defense. Winning 11 seems a tad optimistic to me, but I believe the Week 5 winner of the Redskins/Panthers game will get a Wild Card berth with 10 wins, and the loser will just miss out at 9-7. Who do I think will get it? You’re going to have to wait for my weekly picks column the second week of October... |
