| Daniel Leroux. 5th January, 2010 - 7:05 pm
 Once again the 49ers failed to reach the postseason, but the final games of 2009 provided the opportunity to examine the team through the lens of the upcoming off-season, one that should provide some unique and pivotal opportunities. Given that balancing, it seems best to analyze the Lions game in the greater context of free agency and the 2010 NFL Draft.
Offense
One of the ways the Niners are distinct is that despite missing the playoffs again, they have a number of high value guys at key positions that should be locked in for a long period of time. Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, and Joe Staley are all integral parts of the 49ers’ offensive future.
Davis has finally put the pieces together in the way the team has been hoping he would for the last few seasons, and his leadership role and attitude have been incredibly impressive. On a personal level, it was amazing to see him talk after the game humbly about how close he was to the TD record for tight ends, but quickly turn the focus back to team accomplishments. The other remarkable thing about VD is that his blocking has improved dramatically, making him a much larger asset to the team even when he is not snatching passes and scoring touchdowns. Vernon has become a true Pro Bowler and a cornerstone of any Niners offense.
Michael Crabtree has shown his worth pretty clearly since joining the team midway through. One of my friends has frequently opined that the Niners would clearly be in the playoffs if Crabtree had signed in time to play Week 1, and I’m convinced that he is right. In the game against the Lions, his 50-yard catch was a huge momentum swing and the type of play the Niners will need from one of their WR’s almost every week next season. At this point, it is not completely clear whether Crabtree is a #1 or a #2 wide receiver in the long term, but that distinction does not matter a ton in today’s NFL, because teams can utilize such a high number of receivers should they be available.
Frank Gore is Frank Gore- it’s hard to describe him fully to those who do not watch San Francisco frequently. He runs with great speed in the open field, nice power in more closed quarters, and a game changer in the passing game.
I asked Michael Crabtree after the game what having Gore coming out of the backfield means to the receivers, and he answered that it “works both ways,” explaining that he thinks the more vertical WR’s open up the short range game just as much as Gore and company clear space for deep balls. That logic makes a great deal of sense, and is something the team can build on down the line.
Crabtree and Josh Morgan both have futures with the team, but it would be fantastic if the Niners could get a #2-quality guy (or better, of course) that can really stretch the field with his speed since that is not the dominant aspect in either Crabtree or Morgan’s game. This added weapon would really be the last non-QB skill player that the Niners truly need in the long-term, which is awfully impressive.
The major offensive area that needs improvement talent-wise is the offensive line. Joe Staley is a legitimate stud, but the rest of the line could benefit from additional depth and personnel changes on the starting 5. To me, the biggest immediate need is at right tackle. It’s astonishing that Gore has been as productive as he is when the line has not been as good as many of his NFC compadres (Adrian Peterson and the Panthers’ RB’s come to mind). Luckily, the Niners having two mid-first round picks in their possession could rectify this. In my eyes, a target for one of the picks should be Trent Williams out of Oklahoma. Traditionally, true RT prospects have dropped in the draft because left tackles (blind side blockers, typically) hold more value, but the Niners have Joe Staley locked in there. Trent could step in and immediately be a force in the running game, and would be a compelling complement to Chilo Richal, who has appeared to be better at run blocking than pass blocking from his RG slot. Guys like Adam Snyder and David Baas are the types of guys you want around on a good team, though I’m not sure if either should be a starting o-lineman on a playoff team. Luckily, this draft also has some solid depth when it comes to interior lineman, which could allow the Niners to use a 2nd or 3rd and get a contributor.
Finally, we get to the quarterback situation. To be frank, I am not sure if Alex Smith is the answer. He very well could turn out to be a reliable starting QB and has definitely made some important strides this season. One particularly impressive thing I got from him was in an answer to a question during his press conference after the Lions game. He alluded to the possibility of taking a sack on 4th down rather than trying a throw, and the questioner properly followed up for clarification. Then, he discussed the downside of throwing an interception in a situation like that. While I do not necessarily support the specific direction his logic took him in that spot, the general idea that a sack or throw away is better than throwing the ball into trouble holds a great deal of validity and shows a level of maturity for a guy who is still only 25-years-old.
The fact of the matter here is that there are not realistic options out there for QB’s not named Alex Smith this off-season. Jake Locker’s return to school eliminates the one collegiate QB that could make sense for San Francisco as I’m not in love with Jimmy Clausen and do not like Sam Bradford as an NFL signal-caller. If Tim Tebow were around in the 2nd, he could be more of a Wildcat QB and backup, but not the primary. In free agency, this will be an incredibly rough year unless the Texans screw the pooch and let Matt Schaub shop around (in which case, the Niners better pounce). In a way, this paucity of talent should work to the Niners’ favor, since they should get another year and a clear opinion of Smith as the long-term starter before a more final decision becomes necessary.
Defense
Partially thanks to great coaching and partially thanks to some excellent acquisitions, the Niners’ defense is in a very good position going forward.
The defensive line has a very solid core in place, though it could still use some work. As long as he is willing to come back at a reasonable dollar amount, Aubrayo Franklin should be the anchor of the line. Justin Smith works incredibly well as a productive and high-motor man, and Isaac Sopoaga seems to have found his niche a little better this season. If Ahmad Brooks can continue his incredible pass rushing from the second half of this season, the line could be pretty well settled going into next season if Franklin stays, though it would be nice to have an additional situational pass rusher on roster. Also, as a firm believer in how true beasts can affect the game, if one of the mountainous DT’s in this draft somehow fell to either of the Niners’ picks, it could shape this defense into an even nastier force.
Similarly, the linebacking core is in very good shape. Patrick Willis is a game-changer and the best MLB in the game. Part of what makes him so amazing is that he combines excellent instincts with incredible athleticism for his position. The NFL has seen MLB’s who excel with either one of those characteristics, but very few guys read plays as fast as Willis and then have the speed to close on almost anyone. There was a play against Detroit where Willis ran down Calvin Johnson, which was awfully impressive even though it was not a true footrace. Next to Willis, Takeo Spikes is a solid player and a great locker room guy/mentor. That said, I would love for this team to draft a talented successor so that Scott McKillop can stick as a backup MLB and special teams beast for the long term, a niche more suited to his talents.
In this draft, Brandon Spikes and Rolando McClain both serve as excellent options since both are talented enough to line up in a variety of capacities, including some 4-3 OLB when San Francisco wants to change it up. On the outside, both Harylson and Lawson are coming into their own, though adding another talent to the fold could push both. Also, I would love to see Manny go back to his college roots at times and get some snaps as a pass-rusher in Nickel and Dime situations. Having more depth on the outside would make that a more reasonable option.
The Niners’ secondary is the area that could still use some improvement. If Nate Clements really has to become a safety long-term, CB becomes a clear area of need. Shawntae Spencer is excellent at defending the more physical (and possession-oriented) WR’s in the league, but the team needs a guy who can handle the more speedy WR’s. Joe Haden is a perfect fit and should be around for the Niners’ earliest first round pick. Getting a more solid 4th CB would help too, especially considering Arizona’s place in the division. In terms of the safeties, much hinges on Clements’ status, though I like Dashon Goldson’s playmaking, particularly in the second half of the season. In my eyes, the secondary needs at least one or two more guys who can contribute in a depth capacity, and either safety spot would be a good place to start.
One other wrinkle that could help the Niners would be the ability to work in some 4-3 looks to challenge opposing offenses and take advantage of certain situations. All of the d-lineman can play in the 4-3, and the addition of better natural pass-rushers is necessary regardless. Of course, this does not need to be a permanent or substantial switch, just something to make a few plays a game harder for the other side.
Special Teams
I do not really have much to say about Joe Nedney- this season has shown us that kicking is an eternally evolving thing (look at Nick Folk), so making any firm statement seems like a waste of time. Andy Lee and the underrated Brian Jennings are both fantastic at their jobs and will be part of next year’s squad.
The larger issue for the Niners is the continuing lack of a difference-making return man. Unlike many other positions on the field, quality returners have an excellent transition rate from the college ranks to the pros. Players like DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, and Maurice Jones-Drew were top-tier returners in college that kept it going in the NFL. An investment in a player that can return kicks would be worth the costs even if they are limited to that role.
Conclusion
What makes the 49ers distinct among non-playoff teams is how many of the expensive and difficult to obtain pieces they have in place. They have a franchise RB, Pro Bowl TE, and at least one starting-quality WR to go along with a very good defense. It may not be clear at this point if Smith is the QB of the future (or even the near future), but this off-season will not provide the opportunity for a substantial upgrade barring the unforeseen.
Investments in depth and quality for both the offensive line and secondary are the highest priority going into free agency and the draft, with a game-changing return man (ideally a speedy WR to fill the other niche) coming in close behind. If the front office makes smart, proactive decisions and this team can get better at winning on the road, I expect that Niners fans will not have closed the book on next season when the calendar turns to 2011. |
