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It's been seven long months, but football is finally back in our lives full-time. The 'KQ' has returned to help guide you through Week One of the 2008 NFL Season.
The crispness is back in the air, and that can only mean one thing: It’s football season! Risdon offers his picks for Week 1 and which teams will make the playoffs.
Among Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, LaRon Landry and Thomas Howard, there are no shortage of young players that are poised to explode this season.
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It is not surprising that after a season with so many huge upsets across the board, teams were perfectly comfortable with making changes at the top.
A total of 18 Division IA schools have given the reigns to new coaches for their football teams. Now, that was not the case for all teams, as some were fed up with too many inconsistent or losing seasons, and some had to find replacements when their coaches went on to other jobs. To see what happened last season for each conference, go to TheNFLHouse.com and check out the NCAA Season Reviews.
Here are the 18 coaches in new places, with what their season outlook is, coaching outlook, number of years they have to build up the program, and projected season record for the 2008 season.
Arkansas
Old Coach – Houston Nutt (Resigned, Mississippi)
New Coach – Bobby Petrino (Atlanta Falcons Coach)
Season Outlook: After an up and down season in which he got very drastic yet mixed reviews, Houston Nutt called it quits at Arkansas. The problem with that was the fact that the two best players on the Arkansas roster bolted to the draft, possibly because he wasn’t there. McFadden was a Top 4 selection while Felix Jones was picked 23rd. The return was Casey Dick, but that’s about it, which isn’t much to look forward to.
Coaching Outlook: Bobby Petrino is a great college coach, no doubt about that. But, his resume as a quitter on his team (left Louisville out of the blue, then left the Falcons after 13 games) isn’t good for future recruiting classes. But, for the time being, he has a decent QB to mold into another NFL draft pick, he has some talent that all teams in the SEC get, and he has the experience in big games. Petrino will most likely win in Arkansas as he is just a classic great college coach. But, the toughness of the SEC could scare him and damage his record, so if he doesn’t start to compete for SEC crowns early on, he could be ousted.
Years to Build: 3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 7-5
Baylor
Old Coach – Guy Morris (fired)
New Coach – Art Briles (Houston)
Season Outlook: This team has not been to a bowl game since 1994 and hasn’t had a winning record since 1995. They have really struggled in every season, especially against Big 12 opponents. If they can get a few solid recruits and win the games they are supposed to, they could compete for a .500 record early on.
Coaching Outlook: I was pretty surprised that Briles didn’t get any other looks from bigger schools because he has done nothing but win in Houston. He led Houston to 4 bowl games in 5 years, a team, which before he got there, had one winning season in its last twelve seasons. He also led his team to a C-USA championship. We will see if he can take a Big 12 team to the same result.
Years to Build: 3-5 Years
2008 Projected Record: 10-2
Colorado State
Old Coach - Sonny Lubick (Resigned)
New Coach – Steve Fairchild (Assistant Coach)
Season Outlook: The Broncos have enjoyed some solid teams and have really not been able to build up a strong core of talent for their team. They have battled Colorado for recruiting in state for a while but may be losing ground now even more. They need to gain some production, as it needs help, but also to step up a little more if they wish to continue to compete in the Mountain West conference.
Coaching Outlook: Forcing Lubick to resign was somewhat surprising as he led them to a 108-74 record and 9 bowl games. I don’t know who they think they are, but I don’t think Steve Fairchild can do much better. Fairchild has been with the team for a while now, and he knows the players and the system, but he needs to separate himself from Lubick to stay for an extended period of time.
Years to Build: 2-3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 3-9
Duke
Old Coach – Ted Roof (Fired)
New Coach – David Cutcliffe (former offensive coordinator for Tennessee)
Season Outlook: No team has a better chance to go winless than Duke. Every season that is. How bad is Duke? They would struggle to go .500 in Division II. They make the expansion Tampa Bay Bucs from a while back look like the 2008 New England Patriots. They are just bad. Worse than bad. If any coach can lead this team to a 3 or 4 win season in year one, he should get an NFL coaching gig.
Coaching Outlook: After posting a Job Description on the Duke Athletics website, I am surprised they still landed a decent coach. Cutcliffe was Eli Manning’s head coach and had a 44-29 record at Ole Miss. He has been the Tennessee offensive coordinator, and they have enjoyed quite a bit of success. He has a tough road ahead of him, though.
Years to Build: 5-10 Years (or until he says “Not worth it”)
2008 Projected Record: 1-11
Georgia Tech
Old Coach – Chan Gailey (Fired)
New Coach – Paul Johnson (Navy)
Season Outlook: This team loses its heart and soul in Tashard Choice, but they have had some solid recruiting classes the past few years. The big question will be how much Paul Johnson uses the option in the ACC, which has not been the norm for a while. We will see if the current players can fit into Johnson’s system.
Coaching Outlook: Johnson has run the option at Navy for the past 6 seasons and has had astounding success. It is still up in the air if he will run it at Georgia Tech. Did he only run the option because he didn’t have the necessary talent to run a regular offense? Would Tech hire him if he were going to run the option in the ACC? I don’t know the answer, but it should be interesting to see.
Years to Build: 2-3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 8-4
Hawaii
Old Coach – June Jones (SMU)
New Coach – Greg McMacklin (former Defensive Coordinator)
Season Outlook: Even though they lost most of their key offensive players, this team still has a number of recruits who will carry over. Losing your quarterback is never good, but losing your three top receivers is really bad. As I said, they still have talent, but I don’t know how long it will last.
Coaching Outlook: McMacklin is a very puzzling hire. He was the defensive coordinator for a decent defense and will be coaching a team that the only reason they won games was their passing offense. If McMacklin can’t find a way to mimic June Jones’ offense, he will struggle to go .500.
Years to Build: 1-2 Years
2008 Projected Record: 6-7
Houston
Old Coach – Art Briles (Baylor)
New Coach – Kevin Sumlin (Oklahoma)
Season Outlook: After quite a few good seasons and solid recruiting, Houston has one of the most talented teams in the Conference USA. This team has loads of potential and has really made a name for itself the past few years. They should be looking to once again compete for the C-USA title.
Coaching Outlook: Sumlin, who has been basically Bob Stoops' righthand man, has finally gotten his shot to coach. He has been the co-offensive coordinator, the passing game coordinator, and the wide receivers' coach. Sumlin will have to replace Art Briles, who really put Houston on the map for the 1st time in a while. Sumlin will need to bring his offensive expertise to keep this newfound tradition intact.
Years to Build: 2-3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 10-2
Michigan
Old Coach – Lloyd Carr (Retired)
New Coach – Rich Rodriguez (West Virginia)
Season Outlook: After having a strong nucleus of great talent for a good 3-4 year stretch and having all those talented players back for one last go, Lloyd Carr blew it, and now all the great talent is gone to the NFL draft, including their top 2 QB's, top 2 RB's, Top 2 WR's, top 2 offensive lineman, and two of their top defensive players. But, they still have some good talent, and Rodriguez brought in a collection of freshman who fit his scheme well.
Coaching Outlook: After leaving West Virginia, many people were angry with him, just not the people in Ann Arbor. They were overjoyed for 3 reasons. One, they will finally have a system that compares with Ohio State, their archrival and current dominator. Two, they will get a very high profile coach who brings a winning attitude and a great record to back it up. And finally, he brought in the hope that Terrell Pryor would be the savior of the Michigan Wolverines. Even though he lost in the Pryor sweepstakes, two out of three isn’t back, and he should compete relatively soon.
Years to Build: 5 Years
2008 Projected Record: 8-4
Mississippi
Old Coach – Ed Orgeron (Fired)
New Coach – Houston Nutt (Arkansas)
Season Outlook: The Rebels have not enjoyed a good season since Eli but still have some solid players. They have decent depth at the key positions and even have some good players at quarterback. With Ed Orgeron out, it should be interesting to see if all the players stay, but they really can’t get much worse than they were with him.
Coaching Outlook: Nutt didn’t really have a defined system at Arkansas since he ran everything from I-formation to shotgun with McFadden in the backfield. At Ole Miss, Nutt has some talented players and can hopefully let his mind be creative a little and move the few special players he has around. I wouldn’t expect too much out of him in year one because this team is rather a mess, but in year 2 or 3, they should start to compete.
Years to Build: 3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 4-8
Navy
Old Coach – Paul Johnson (Georgia Tech)
New Coach – Ken Niumatalolo (former Offensive Coordinator)
Season Outlook: It is safe to say that none of the Navy players will be going anywhere unexpected. But, they won’t be getting any 4 or 5 star recruits either. This team has to play within their means and try to make due with whomever they get. That being said, they have had some solid football players, and if they use the option again, they could compete.
Coaching Outlook: Niumatalolo will be faced with a daunting and almost unfair position. He has to replace the only coach to make the Midshipmen contenders since the 1960s and 70s. Paul Johnson ran the option to perfection and beat all the teams he had to. If Ken wants to win, he should not stray away from that at all, or else he will be out in no time at all.
Years to Build: 3-5 Years
2008 Projected Record: 3-9
Nebraska
Old Coach – Bill Callahan (Fired)
New Coach – Bo Pellini (LSU Offensive Coordinator)
Season Outlook: Bill Callahan may not have been a good coach, but he was a very decent recruiter. The future star of this team is Marlon Lucky, who reminds me of Reggie Bush, except with a little less agility but more willingness to go up the middle for tough yards. This team also has a decent offensive line on which to build.
Coaching Outlook: Pellini was the former offensive coordinator for the national championship LSU Tigers, which is a great testament to him. LSU has had a very solid offense the past few years with JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flynn at QB, both doing very well, as well some great WR's such as Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe, both of whom were 1st round draft picks. If Pellini can build with what he has at Nebraska, he can get many top prospects just because of Nebraska’s prestige. But, if he doesn’t produce quickly, they won’t hesitate to find another big name.
Years to Build: 2-3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 5-7
Northern Illinois
Old Coach – Joe Novak (Retired)
New Coach – Jerry Kill (Southern Illinois)
Season Outlook: Northern Illinois was good for a while, but as of late they have really struggled, including a 2-10 season a year ago. This team has not had any great recruiting classes and will really struggle with the emergence of Illinois in the Big Ten. They need to take advantage of being in one of, if not thee, worst conference in Division I football.
Coaching Outlook: Kill has really had success in the lower levels of college football, leading Southern Illinois to a solid playoff appearance. Kill had tons of success, and has a 104-57 record in his entire coaching career. Northern Illinois is a somewhat decent program but has not been really good since Garret Wolfe two years ago.
Years to Build: 3-5 Years
2008 Projected Record: 6-7
Southern Methodist (SMU)
Old Coach – Phil Bennett (Fired)
New Coach – June Jones (Hawaii)
Season Outlook: The team returns Justin Willis, who was a solid starter for only being a sophomore. They have had some decent recruiting classes and have been projected to have a winning record the past few years due to all that talent.
Coaching Outlook: June Jones is now one of the more recognized names in college football coaching because of his miracle work at Hawaii University. He turned a player like Timmy Chang, who had very minimum ability at QB, into one of the best QB's in history, at least stat-wise. Most notably, he helped give Colt Brennan a great chance to be a NFL Draft prospect and maybe a future NFL starter. He should be able to make them very good soon but will get the benefit of the doubt if it isn’t immediate.
Years to Build: 5 Years
2008 Projected Record: 9-3
Southern Miss
Old Coach – Jeff Bower (Resigned)
New Coach – Larry Fedora (former Oklahoma State Offensive Coordinator)
Season Outlook: Southern Miss has built up a reputation of being a solid, if not elite, contender every year as they had 14 consecutive winning seasons and 11 bowl games in that time period. They have some solid players, most notably Damion Fletcher, who is a very talented running back. They should compete once again and be one of the best in the conference.
Coaching Outlook: Jeff Bower will be a legend at Southern Miss as they were a model for excellence. But, getting a guy like Larry Fedora, who was the leader of one of the best offenses in the country, could maybe help this team. They already have some good offensive players, but if they can take some of that OK State production, they can be even better.
Years to Build: 2-3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 7-5
Texas A&M
Old Coach – Dennis Franchione (Resigned)
New Coach – Mike Sherman (former Houston Texans Offensive Coordinator)
Season Outlook: The Aggies have loads of talent and may have one of the best running back duos in college in Jovorskie Lane and Mike Goodson. They also have a good running quarterback in Stephen McGee. They have not been able to keep up in the Big 12, but they have the talent and the “12th man” in their stadium, so they can still go further than expected.
Coaching Outlook: Sherman was a very successful NFL coach especially with Green Bay. He has also helped in the development of the Texans' offense the past few seasons. Sherman inherits a solid team, but a team without NFL style players, especially at quarterback, and McGee isn’t a solid passer. It should be interesting to see what type of offense he runs.
Years to Build: 2-3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 6-6
UCLA
Old Coach – Karl Dorrell (Fired)
New Coach – Rick Neuheisel (former Baltimore Ravens QB Coach)
Season Outlook: This team has loads of talent, and it is awful that they can’t compete every year. The injuries at quarterback should make this team a nervous pick to go far, but if they can find someone to lead them or their players come off injury, this team can be deadly. The Pac-10 is usually very deep, but with California and Oregon losing many key players, they have a shot to compete.
Coaching Outlook: The last time Rich Neuheisel was coaching, he was doing a great job at Washington. He led them to a 33-16 record but was fired after he played in a NCAA tournament pool. This guy is a great college coach, and everywhere he has gone he has won.
Years to Build: 1-2 Years
2008 Projected Record: 9-3
Washington State
Old Coach – Bill Doba (Resigned)
New Coach – Paul Wulff (Eastern Washington)
Season Outlook: Washington State has had some decent seasons and has produced a few good pro prospects, including Alex Brink at quarterback and Jason Hill at receiver, most notably. They still have some talented wide outs, and they could surprise in the Pac-10 because Oregon lost its two best players, and California lost most of its offensive weapons.
Coaching Outlook: Wulff was somewhat of a surprising candidate to replace Doba since he was only the coach at Eastern Washington. Wulff was a former player and graduate of Washington State, so that probably helped him immensely. He takes over a team with some talent left over but needs to make sure he gets a good handle on Washington recruiting.
Years to Build: 2-4 Years
2008 Projected Record: 5-8
West Virginia
Old Coach – Rich Rodriguez (Michigan)
New Coach – Bill Stewart (former assistant head coach)
Season Outlook: Even though they lost their “creator” in Rich Rodriguez, who found all of the talent for this team and implemented the system, they still have 2 possible Heisman candidates in Pat White, who was a Top 5 guy a year ago, and standout Noel Devine, who dominated as a freshman.
Coaching Outlook: Word is that Stewart will try to keep the same system as Rodriguez had, which is very smart as he has the experience and the talent to run the system effectively. But, he has said that he wants to throw the ball more, which is great news for Pat White. He should be able to maintain an above average record for the next 3 years with Rich Rodriguez’s talent, but if he doesn’t or if he starts to struggle once Rich’s guys are gone, he will be out in a heart beat.
Years to Build: 3 Years
2008 Projected Record: 11-1
With all of the extreme changes at the top of ladder of coaching, it should be interesting to see how these new coaches will fare. It is never easy to step into a new coaching gig, especially at a bigger school like Michigan, Nebraska, or Arkansas.
The one thing that kills most coaches is the lack of production in that first season. Once the fans lose faith in the coach, it is BCS game or bust for those colleges. With all of the parity in college football, it is tough to maintain a solid winning percentage year in and out, and it shows by the drastic changes in the coaching ranks in Division I.
